PonoTrading Research
Futures trading education, market pulse briefs, expected move reports, and technical analysis to help you trade with structure.
Record Highs, Oil Relief, and Month-End Acceptance - Market Pulse for Friday, May 29, 2026
Market Pulse for Friday, May 29, 2026: stocks press fresh record highs into month-end, AI leadership stays bid, oil eases, VIX remains contained, and ES/NQ/RTY test upper expected-move acceptance zones.
Macro Reality Check Hits a Stretched Tape - Market Pulse for Thursday, May 28, 2026
Market Pulse for Thursday, May 28, 2026: GDP was revised lower, PCE remains sticky, NQ is still stretched, oil stays heavy, and ES/NQ/RTY are testing key expected-move decision zones.
Nasdaq Stretch, Oil Flush, and Thursday Macro Risk Define the Breakout Test - Market Pulse for Wednesday, May 27, 2026
Market Pulse for Wednesday, May 27, 2026: Nasdaq leadership remains strong but stretched, crude oil is flushing lower, VIX is contained, and ES/NQ/RTY are testing key expected-move and gamma flip decision zones.
Record-High Futures Face the Real Cash-Session Test as Oil Relief Gets Complicated - Market Pulse for Tuesday, May 26, 2026
Market Pulse for Tuesday, May 26, 2026: record-high futures face the first full cash-session confirmation after Memorial Day as ES/NQ/RTY press stretched expected-move levels, VIX stays contained, and crude oil remains the macro switch.
Record-High Futures Meet Holiday Liquidity as Oil Breaks Lower - Market Pulse for Monday, May 25, 2026
U.S. cash equities are closed for Memorial Day, but equity index futures pressed fresh all-time highs in an abbreviated holiday session as crude oil fell sharply on geopolitical relief.
Futures Grind Higher Into Memorial Day Weekend, But Oil Headlines Still Own the Wheel - Market Pulse for Friday, May 22, 2026
U.S. index futures are leaning higher into the open, but the session is still being priced through one lens: crude oil and Strait of Hormuz headlines. With a long weekend ahead (U.S. equity markets closed Monday), the best trades today will usually come from confirmation — not chasing the first green candle.
Nvidia Delivered, but Oil and Yields Are Still Testing the Tape - Market Pulse for Thursday, May 21, 2026
Market Pulse for Thursday, May 21, 2026: Nvidia delivered a strong AI print, but oil, yields, Walmart consumer caution, and stretched ES/NQ expected-move levels still need confirmation.
Nvidia After the Close Is the Market's Real Test as Oil Cools and Futures Rebound - Market Pulse for Wednesday, May 20, 2026
Market Pulse for Wednesday, May 20, 2026: U.S. futures rebound as oil cools, yields ease, VIX stays contained near 18, and Nvidia earnings after the close become the main AI leadership test.
Chips Slip Before Nvidia Earnings as Oil Cools and ES/NQ Test the Stretch - Market Pulse for Tuesday, May 19, 2026
Market Pulse for Tuesday, May 19, 2026: U.S. futures soften as chip stocks extend pressure before Nvidia earnings, oil eases, VIX stays contained near 18, and ES/NQ remain stretched above Q2 expected-move levels.
Oil Cools as Equities Find a Bid, but Volatility Still Frames the Tape - Market Pulse for Monday, May 18, 2026
Market Pulse for Monday, May 18, 2026: U.S. futures firm as oil backs off overnight highs, VIX flattens near 18.4, and ES/NQ remain stretched against higher-timeframe expected-move zones.
Yield Shock Hits the Open as ES and NQ Test Stretched Q2 Levels - Market Pulse for Friday, May 15, 2026
Market Pulse for Friday, May 15, 2026: Nasdaq and S&P futures come under pressure as oil, inflation worry, and Treasury yields challenge an already stretched ES/NQ expected-move map before industrial production.
PPI Shock Hits a Stretched Tape as Inflation Risk Moves Back to Center Screen - Market Pulse for Wednesday, May 13, 2026
Market Pulse for Wednesday, May 13, 2026: hot PPI, stretched ES/NQ/RTY quarterly expected-move alerts, elevated crude volatility, and futures trade-planning scenarios.
Hot CPI Hits a Stretched Tape as Oil Sits on the Volatility Switch - Market Pulse for Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Market Pulse for Tuesday, May 12, 2026: hot CPI, energy-driven inflation pressure, elevated VIX/VXN/OVX, ES/NQ/RTY quarterly +1SD alerts, crude near the upper daily expected-move band, and futures trade-planning scenarios.
Record-High Pressure Meets Oil Shock Risk as ES, NQ, and RTY Stretch the Q2 Map - Market Pulse for Monday, May 11, 2026
Market Pulse for Monday, May 11, 2026: U.S. equity futures hold near record-high pressure while oil risk returns, VIX stays moderate, and ES, NQ, and RTY all trade beyond quarterly +1SD expected-move zones.
Jobs Beat Meets Record-High Pressure as NQ Stretches the Weekly Map - Market Pulse for Friday, May 8, 2026
Market Pulse for Friday, May 8, 2026: a stronger-than-feared jobs report keeps risk bid, but ES, NQ, and RTY remain stretched against higher-timeframe expected-move zones while crude volatility stays elevated.
Record Highs Meet Oil Breakdown as Expected-Move Stretch Builds - Market Pulse for Thursday, May 7, 2026
Market Pulse for Thursday, May 7, 2026: equities hold near record territory, crude oil breaks lower, AI leadership keeps Nasdaq bid, and ES/NQ/RTY press stretched expected-move zones.
Crude Tests Extreme Support as AI Bulls Keep the Tape Bid - Market Pulse for Wednesday, May 6, 2026
Market Pulse for Wednesday, May 6, 2026: crude flushes into extreme support and reclaims, AMD keeps the AI bid alive, NQ remains stretched above quarterly +1SD, and traders watch whether CL stabilization confirms risk-on acceptance.
Risk Bounces as Oil Cools, But NQ Still Lives Above Quarterly Stretch
U.S. futures are bouncing as oil cools from Monday's spike, but the session still carries headline risk from the Strait of Hormuz, a 10:00 AM ET macro stack, and a Nasdaq tape that remains above its quarterly +1SD expected-move zone.
Oil Risk Keeps Pressure on Risk Appetite as NQ Tests Quarterly Stretch
U.S. equities are mixed as oil risk stays front and center. SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM are softer midday while USO is sharply higher, keeping the session focused on whether Nasdaq strength can hold without chasing into a stretched quarterly expected-move zone.
Daily Expected Moves - Monday, May 4, 2026
Daily 1SD and 2SD expected move levels for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, and CL, with weekly, monthly, and quarterly context.
Apple Keeps the Rally Alive as NQ Pushes Into Quarterly Stretch
Market Pulse for Friday, May 1, 2026: Apple keeps mega-cap momentum alive, futures hold near record territory, VIX cools, and NQ pushes above its quarterly +1SD expected-move boundary.
AI Earnings Split the Tape as GDP Strength Keeps the Fed Boxed In
Market Pulse for Thursday, April 30, 2026: AI earnings are producing a sharp split inside Nasdaq leadership, GDP improved but inflation stayed hot, jobless claims remain extremely low, and ES/NQ traders need the expected-move map before pressing direction.
Fed Day and Four-Mag-7 Earnings Put NQ Leadership on Trial
Daily pre-market brief for Wednesday, April 29, 2026: FOMC decision risk, Powell press conference, Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta/Amazon earnings, crude volatility, and the ES/NQ expected-move levels traders need before the New York session.
Daily Expected Moves - Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Daily 1SD and 2SD expected move levels for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, and CL, with weekly, monthly, and quarterly context.
NQ Holds the Leadership Baton as Consumer Confidence and Visa Earnings Test the Tape
Daily pre-market brief for Tuesday, April 28, 2026: futures, expected-move ranges, macro catalysts, Visa earnings, and the key read for traders before the New York open.
NQ Leads Into Big Tech Earnings Week as Hormuz Headlines Keep Oil Bid
Daily pre-market brief for Monday, April 27, 2026: futures, overnight markets, earnings, macro calendar, movers, and the key read for traders before the New York open.
NQ +1.13% Ahead of UoM Sentiment: Key Levels for Risk-On/Off
Daily pre-market brief for Friday, April 24, 2026: prior session, overnight markets, US futures, and key levels.
VIX 19.4: Unemployment Claims 211K in focus. ES, NQ slide.
Daily pre-market brief for Thursday, April 23, 2026: prior session, overnight markets, US futures, and key levels.
Futures Rise 1% Ahead of Key Earnings and Data
Daily pre-market brief for Wednesday, April 22, 2026: prior session, overnight markets, US futures, and key levels.
Futures Rise 0.4% as Trump Extends Iran Truce — Market Pulse
Daily pre-market brief for Tuesday, April 21, 2026: Trump extends Iran ceasefire, crude slips, futures bid, prior session, and key levels.
Soaring jet fuel prices threaten to drive up summer trave... — Market Pulse
Daily pre-market brief for Monday, April 20, 2026: prior session, overnight markets, US futures, and key levels.
Daily Expected Moves — April 17, 2026
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — with VIX context, strategy reminders, and links to the EM Performance Tracker.
Oil Crashes 13% as Iran Peace Talks Shake Global Markets — Equities Rip to New Highs
Daily pre-market brief for Friday, April 17, 2026: prior session, overnight markets, US futures, and key levels.
Daily Expected Moves — April 16, 2026
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — with VIX context, strategy reminders, and links to the EM Performance Tracker.
Daily Expected Moves — April 15, 2026
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — with VIX context, strategy reminders, and links to the EM Performance Tracker.
Daily Expected Moves — April 14, 2026
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — with VIX context, strategy reminders, and links to the EM Performance Tracker.
Daily Expected Moves — April 13, 2026
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — with VIX context, strategy reminders, and links to the EM Performance Tracker.
Daily Expected Moves — April 12, 2026
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — with VIX context, strategy reminders, and links to the EM Performance Tracker.
How Price Really Moves: Session Medians, Dealing Ranges, and Why Most Traders Miss It
Most traders stare at indicators waiting for a signal. Meanwhile, price is telling you exactly where it's going — if you understand how sessions hand off liquidity to each other.