Daily Expected Moves — April 14, 2026
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — with VIX context, strategy reminders, and links to the EM Performance Tracker.
Daily Expected Moves — April 14, 2026
> Know your range before the bell. Trade the structure, not the noise.
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📊 The Setup
VIX: 18.06 | VXN: 21.80VIX is in moderate territory — normal volatility environment. Standard expected move ranges apply.
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🎯 Expected Move Ranges
| Product | Name | Close | 1SD Range (68%) | 2SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | S&P 500 E-mini | $7,004.25 | $6,938.04 — $7,070.46 (±66.21) | $6,871.83 — $7,136.67 |
| NQ | Nasdaq 100 E-mini | $26,005.00 | $25,708.27 — $26,301.73 (±296.73) | $25,411.53 — $26,598.47 |
| YM | Dow E-mini | $48,712.00 | $48,251.52 — $49,172.48 (±460.48) | $47,791.05 — $49,632.95 |
| RTY | Russell 2000 E-mini | $2,716.00 | $2,690.33 — $2,741.67 (±25.67) | $2,664.65 — $2,767.35 |
| GC | Gold | $4,834.20 | $4,774.79 — $4,893.61 (±59.41) | $4,715.38 — $4,953.02 |
| CL | Crude Oil | $91.04 | $89.49 — $92.59 (±1.55) | $87.94 — $94.14 |
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📖 How to Use These Levels
1SD Range (68% probability): Price statistically stays inside this range 68% of the time. When price reaches the 1SD boundary during the session, it has historically reversed back inside ~55-70% of the time depending on the product. The ES tends to fade well at 1SD. Gold and crude oil trend through more often. 2SD Range (95% probability): When price reaches 2SD, you're in extreme territory. On NQ, this has resulted in a reversal 70% of the time in backtested data. These are high-conviction fade levels — but size accordingly. Close Location = Bias: Where price closes relative to these levels matters as much as where it trades intraday:PonoTrading Team
PonoTrading publishes futures trading education, market structure notes, expected move analysis, and practical indicator workflows for retail traders.
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