Daily Expected Moves — April 17, 2026
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — with VIX context, strategy reminders, and links to the EM Performance Tracker.
Daily Expected Moves — April 17, 2026
Know your range before the bell. Trade the structure, not the noise.
📊 The Setup
VIX: 17.48 | VXN: 21.57
VIX is in moderate territory — normal volatility environment. Standard expected move ranges apply.
🎯 Expected Move Ranges
| Product | Name | Close | 1SD Range (68%) | 2SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | S&P 500 E-mini | $7,101.40 | $7,036.43 — $7,166.37 (±64.97) | $6,971.45 — $7,231.35 |
| NQ | Nasdaq 100 E-mini | $26,602.85 | $26,302.50 — $26,903.20 (±300.35) | $26,002.14 — $27,203.56 |
| YM | Dow E-mini | $49,422.00 | $48,969.82 — $49,874.18 (±452.18) | $48,517.63 — $50,326.37 |
| RTY | Russell 2000 E-mini | $2,757.80 | $2,732.57 — $2,783.03 (±25.23) | $2,707.34 — $2,808.26 |
| GC | Gold | $4,905.23 | $4,846.90 — $4,963.56 (±58.33) | $4,788.56 — $5,021.90 |
| CL | Crude Oil | $82.65 | $81.29 — $84.01 (±1.36) | $79.93 — $85.37 |
📖 How to Use These Levels
1SD Range (68% probability): Price statistically stays inside this range 68% of the time. When price reaches the 1SD boundary during the session, it has historically reversed back inside ~55-70% of the time depending on the product. The ES tends to fade well at 1SD. Gold and crude oil trend through more often.
2SD Range (95% probability): When price reaches 2SD, you're in extreme territory. On NQ, this has resulted in a reversal 70% of the time in backtested data. These are high-conviction fade levels — but size accordingly.
Close Location = Bias: Where price closes relative to these levels matters as much as where it trades intraday:
- Closing inside 1SD → bias neutral, next day's EM applies normally
- Closing above 1SD → bullish momentum, fade the high is lower probability next session
- Closing below 1SD → bearish momentum, oversold relative
Written by
PonoTrading Team
PonoTrading publishes futures trading education, market structure notes, expected move analysis, and practical indicator workflows for retail traders.
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