Daily Expected Moves — April 16, 2026

Daily Expected Moves — April 16, 2026

> Know your range before the bell. Trade the structure, not the noise.

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📊 The Setup

VIX: 18.23 | VXN: 22.18

VIX is in moderate territory — normal volatility environment. Standard expected move ranges apply.

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🎯 Expected Move Ranges

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📖 How to Use These Levels

1SD Range (68% probability): Price statistically stays inside this range 68% of the time. When price reaches the 1SD boundary during the session, it has historically reversed back inside ~55-70% of the time depending on the product. The ES tends to fade well at 1SD. Gold and crude oil trend through more often. 2SD Range (95% probability): When price reaches 2SD, you're in extreme territory. On NQ, this has resulted in a reversal 70% of the time in backtested data. These are high-conviction fade levels — but size accordingly. Close Location = Bias: Where price closes relative to these levels matters as much as where it trades intraday:

Closing inside 1SD → bias neutral, next day's EM applies normally

Closing above 1SD → bullish momentum, fade the high is lower probability next session

Closing below 1SD → bearish momentum, oversold relative