Daily Expected Moves — April 13, 2026
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — with VIX context, strategy reminders, and links to the EM Performance Tracker.
Daily Expected Moves — April 13, 2026
> Know your range before the bell. Trade the structure, not the noise.
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📊 The Setup
VIX: 18.73 | VXN: 22.19VIX is in moderate territory — normal volatility environment. Standard expected move ranges apply.
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🎯 Expected Move Ranges
| Product | Name | Close | 1SD Range (68%) | 2SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | S&P 500 E-mini | $6,934.75 | $6,866.76 — $7,002.74 (±67.99) | $6,798.78 — $7,070.72 |
| NQ | Nasdaq 100 E-mini | $25,625.50 | $25,327.87 — $25,923.13 (±297.63) | $25,030.23 — $26,220.77 |
| YM | Dow E-mini | $48,482.00 | $48,006.70 — $48,957.30 (±475.30) | $47,531.39 — $49,432.61 |
| RTY | Russell 2000 E-mini | $2,692.30 | $2,665.91 — $2,718.69 (±26.39) | $2,639.51 — $2,745.09 |
| GC | Gold | $4,801.80 | $4,740.60 — $4,863.00 (±61.20) | $4,679.40 — $4,924.20 |
| CL | Crude Oil | $96.57 | $94.87 — $98.27 (±1.70) | $93.16 — $99.98 |
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📖 How to Use These Levels
1SD Range (68% probability): Price statistically stays inside this range 68% of the time. When price reaches the 1SD boundary during the session, it has historically reversed back inside ~55-70% of the time depending on the product. The ES tends to fade well at 1SD. Gold and crude oil trend through more often. 2SD Range (95% probability): When price reaches 2SD, you're in extreme territory. On NQ, this has resulted in a reversal 70% of the time in backtested data. These are high-conviction fade levels — but size accordingly. Close Location = Bias: Where price closes relative to these levels matters as much as where it trades intraday:PonoTrading Team
PonoTrading publishes futures trading education, market structure notes, expected move analysis, and practical indicator workflows for retail traders.
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