Daily Expected Moves — April 15, 2026
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — with VIX context, strategy reminders, and links to the EM Performance Tracker.
Daily Expected Moves — April 15, 2026
> Know your range before the bell. Trade the structure, not the noise.
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📊 The Setup
VIX: 18.12 | VXN: 22.25VIX is in moderate territory — normal volatility environment. Standard expected move ranges apply.
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🎯 Expected Move Ranges
| Product | Name | Close | 1SD Range (68%) | 2SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | S&P 500 E-mini | $7,004.00 | $6,937.57 — $7,070.43 (±66.43) | $6,871.14 — $7,136.86 |
| NQ | Nasdaq 100 E-mini | $26,199.00 | $25,893.88 — $26,504.12 (±305.12) | $25,588.76 — $26,809.24 |
| YM | Dow E-mini | $48,475.00 | $48,015.24 — $48,934.76 (±459.76) | $47,555.48 — $49,394.52 |
| RTY | Russell 2000 E-mini | $2,693.80 | $2,668.25 — $2,719.35 (±25.55) | $2,642.70 — $2,744.90 |
| GC | Gold | $4,860.46 | $4,800.52 — $4,920.40 (±59.94) | $4,740.58 — $4,980.34 |
| CL | Crude Oil | $92.73 | $91.15 — $94.31 (±1.58) | $89.56 — $95.90 |
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📖 How to Use These Levels
1SD Range (68% probability): Price statistically stays inside this range 68% of the time. When price reaches the 1SD boundary during the session, it has historically reversed back inside ~55-70% of the time depending on the product. The ES tends to fade well at 1SD. Gold and crude oil trend through more often. 2SD Range (95% probability): When price reaches 2SD, you're in extreme territory. On NQ, this has resulted in a reversal 70% of the time in backtested data. These are high-conviction fade levels — but size accordingly. Close Location = Bias: Where price closes relative to these levels matters as much as where it trades intraday:PonoTrading Team
PonoTrading publishes futures trading education, market structure notes, expected move analysis, and practical indicator workflows for retail traders.
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