Daily Expected Moves — April 12, 2026
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — with VIX context, strategy reminders, and links to the EM Performance Tracker.
Daily Expected Moves — April 12, 2026
> Know your range before the bell. Trade the structure, not the noise.
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📊 The Setup
VIX: 19.23 | VXN: 23.09VIX is in moderate territory — normal volatility environment. Standard expected move ranges apply.
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🎯 Expected Move Ranges
| Product | Name | Close | 1SD Range (68%) | 2SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | S&P 500 E-mini | $6,806.25 | $6,737.74 — $6,874.76 (±68.51) | $6,669.23 — $6,943.27 |
| NQ | Nasdaq 100 E-mini | $25,071.75 | $24,768.74 — $25,374.76 (±303.01) | $24,465.72 — $25,677.78 |
| YM | Dow E-mini | $47,806.00 | $47,324.81 — $48,287.19 (±481.19) | $46,843.62 — $48,768.38 |
| RTY | Russell 2000 E-mini | $2,611.00 | $2,584.72 — $2,637.28 (±26.28) | $2,558.44 — $2,663.56 |
| GC | Gold | $4,743.10 | $4,681.03 — $4,805.17 (±62.07) | $4,618.97 — $4,867.23 |
| CL | Crude Oil | $104.59 | $102.70 — $106.48 (±1.89) | $100.80 — $108.38 |
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📖 How to Use These Levels
1SD Range (68% probability): Price statistically stays inside this range 68% of the time. When price reaches the 1SD boundary during the session, it has historically reversed back inside ~55-70% of the time depending on the product. The ES tends to fade well at 1SD. Gold and crude oil trend through more often. 2SD Range (95% probability): When price reaches 2SD, you're in extreme territory. On NQ, this has resulted in a reversal 70% of the time in backtested data. These are high-conviction fade levels — but size accordingly. Close Location = Bias: Where price closes relative to these levels matters as much as where it trades intraday:PonoTrading Team
PonoTrading publishes futures trading education, market structure notes, expected move analysis, and practical indicator workflows for retail traders.
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