Daily Expected Moves - Monday, May 4, 2026

Daily Expected Moves - Monday, May 4, 2026

> April delivered the upside thrust. Monday starts the test of whether that strength can keep accepting higher, or whether Nasdaq is nearing a stretched exhaustion zone.

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Market Volatility Snapshot

VIX: 16.99% | VXN: 21.92% | GVZ: 26.43% | OVX: 75.40%

Compressed volatility. Be alert for slow mean reversion unless price accepts outside the range.

Trend Check: Strong April, Controlled Follow-Through

The bigger story coming into the new week is not just the new daily map. It is where price finished after a powerful April advance. Using Yahoo Finance daily chart history, April closed with equity futures pressing beyond their April expected-move maps: ES +10.24%, NQ +15.39%, and RTY +11.77% from the March 31 anchor close. ES, NQ, and RTY all closed April above their monthly +1SD bands, while YM came within the monthly 1SD envelope on the close but still traded above +1SD intramonth.

Last week was different. The equity tape stayed firm, but the follow-through was more contained: ES +0.88%, NQ +1.46%, YM +0.51%, and RTY +0.83% from the April 24 weekly anchor close. All four equity index futures finished the week inside their weekly 1SD ranges. That combination matters: April showed real upside initiative, but last week did not finish as a fresh volatility expansion. It was more like bullish digestion near the upper part of the larger map.

#### Last Week Versus Weekly Expected Moves