The Trap Door Stayed Shut

Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · After the Close

Our prior month levels put October's low for NQ at 28,232.75. NQ lost it Monday, and November opened as a 2Down on the month. Today NQ won it back and held it for the whole cash session. That one line is the big story of today.

A 2Down is the mirror of our 2Up. Price wicks under a prior low. Then a bounce fails at the median, the middle of the range, and the door opens lower. NQ did the first part on Monday. Today it did not fail. NQ slipped to 28,038.25 overnight, then climbed back over October's low before the bell. It opened at 28,266.50 and its last 1-minute bar under the line was at 8:25 a.m. ET.

In cash, NQ dipped one minute under the line at the 9:30 a.m. ET open. Its low was 28,215.75. The first 5-minute bar closed back over, at 28,316.25. After that, NQ never traded under the line again. The cash low after 9:35 was 28,237.

That puts the 2Down on pause. The trap door to last year's high at 26,399 stayed shut today. July's low at 27,201.50 is still the one big line in between if NQ loses October's low again.

ES held its October low, which is also last week's low, at 7,558.25. ES dipped to 7,546 overnight. In cash it never got close. Its low was 7,576.50. ES spent the whole cash day between its October low and Monday's middle. That is the same box the prep laid out before the bell.

Every index stayed inside its daily expected move. The expected move is the range the options market prices for the day.

Members get the alert counts, the session by the hour, every level checked, this morning's call scored and Wednesday's levels. The full tape is below.

Here's the count. In New York cash, 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, the UW imbalance board sent 5 alerts: 5 hourly, 0 Daily, 0 Weekly. A UW alert fires when price comes back to a spot where buyers or sellers left a gap. MedianReclaim added 8 tags: 6 Daily, 2 Weekly. A MedianReclaim tag fires when price gets back to a range's middle. Every count is a sent alert from imbalance-alert-router → Discord, deduped. Both boards land in the free prep room.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.83% to 25,372.01. The S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92. The Dow fell 0.38% to 51,786.72. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a basket of chip stocks, rose 2.63%.

Scoring this morning

This morning's RTH Market Prep made six calls.

1. NQ's first test is October's low from underneath. Wrong. NQ was already back over 28,232.75 before the bell. The prep's title was stale by the open.
2. NQ back over 28,232.75 and holding past the first 5-minute bar puts the 2Down on pause. Right. That is what happened.
3. After that, the PDM at 28,496.50 is next. Half. PDM means the prior day's median, the halfway point of the day before. NQ's high was 28,443.50 at 11:04 a.m. ET, 53 points short.
4. ES holds over Monday's low at 7,570.75. Right. The cash low was 7,576.50.
5. ES stays under its PDM at 7,632.25. Right. The high was 7,623.75 at 1:34 p.m. ET.
6. Inside the expected move. Right. ES's band was 7,490.65 to 7,658.35. NQ's was 27,672.72 to 28,582.28.

Score: four right, one wrong, one half.

What the tools said

UW board: 5 hourlies. ZB bull 107.5625 at 10:00 a.m. ET, 10Y bear 4.949 at 10:05, 6E bull 1.1202 at 10:13, DXY bear 101.931 at 10:22, and one index print: RTY bear 2846.8 at 11:10. RTY's cash high was 2,847 at 11:17. RTY closed near 2,825.

MedianReclaim: 6 Daily tags (MBT twice, GC, RTY, ZB, ZN) and 2 Weekly tags (ZB, ES). The index tag was ES's Weekly median at 7,619.875 at 1:10 p.m. ET. ES's high came at 1:34 p.m., at 7,623.75, then ES slid back to close near 7,596.

The session by the hour

NQ: The 9:30 dip to 28,215.75 was the low of the cash day. NQ climbed to 28,443.50 at 11:04 a.m. ET. It made a lower high at 28,431.75 at 1:34 p.m. It pulled back to 28,237 at 2:55 p.m., four points over October's low, and held. It finished near 28,300.

ES: It opened at 7,580 and made its cash low of 7,576.50 in the first minute. It climbed to 7,618.25 by 11:15 a.m. and 7,623.75 at 1:34 p.m., just over the weekly median. It pulled back to 7,587.25 at 2:58 p.m. and finished near 7,596.

YM was the weak one. It fell 0.58%. RTY turned down at the UW bear and finished flat.

Levels for Wednesday

Tuesday's full-session range, overnight included, is the new day frame from our prior key levels.

• NQ: 28,496.50 Monday's PDM · 28,443.50 Tuesday's high · 28,240.875 Tuesday's PDM · 28,232.75 October's low · 28,038.25 Tuesday's low · 27,201.50 July's low · 26,399 last year's high
• ES: 7,632.25 Monday's PDM · 7,623.75 Tuesday's high · 7,619.875 Weekly median · 7,584.875 Tuesday's PDM · 7,558.25 October's low · 7,546 Tuesday's low

Note that NQ's new PDM, 28,240.875, sits just over October's low. Two lines in one spot make it the line for Wednesday.

What to do — and what kills it

NQ: Over 28,232.75, the 2Down stays on pause. The test overhead is Tuesday's high at 28,443.50, then Monday's PDM at 28,496.50. A bounce that fails at a median is still the second part of a 2Down, so watch how NQ acts there.

ES: Over the Weekly median at 7,619.875 and holding, Monday's PDM at 7,632.25 is next. Under Tuesday's PDM at 7,584.875, October's low at 7,558.25 is the floor again.

What kills it: NQ back under 28,232.75 and holding past the first 5-minute bar turns the 2Down back on. Then Tuesday's low at 28,038.25 is the next line.

If you want the expected-move bands on your own chart, the Expected Move indicator draws them. Or come watch the levels with us in the free futures prep room.

More: RTH Market Prep, Nov 3

Sources

Prices checked against two independent real-time quote feeds and one-minute futures bars from both. Where the two disagreed, we say so or say "near." Expected-move bands from the house expected-moves publisher, matched against a second feed in this morning's prep. Alert counts from imbalance-alert-router → Discord receipts, deduped.

October's low held all day, but one day is not a trend. An alert is a heads-up, not an entry. Look left at how NQ acted near 28,232.75 in the past before you lean on it again.

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Educational content only. Not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Verify all levels on your own feed before sizing.