NQ Starts Under October's Low

Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Our prior month levels put October's low for NQ at 28,232.75. NQ lost it on Monday, the first day of November. That makes November a 2Down on the month. A 2Down is the mirror of our 2Up: price wicks under a prior low, then a bounce fails at the middle and the door opens lower. NQ has done the first part. Overnight it dipped to 28,038.25 and came back to about 28,200. That is still under October's low. On the monthly chart, last year's high at 26,399 is the next big line, with July's low at 27,201.50 in between. That trip is a possibility to watch, and the daily levels come first.

ES held its own October low at 7,558.25 in Monday's session. Overnight it slipped under it to 7,546, then got back over it. Our expected move puts ES's range for today at 7,490.65 to 7,658.35. The expected move is the range the options market is pricing for a set time.

From Monday's 4:00 p.m. ET close to the run, the UW board sent 14 prints: 14 hourlies, 0 Daily, 0 Weekly. A UW print is an imbalance alert. It fires when price comes back to a level where buyers or sellers left a gap. Four were on the index futures, all hourly bulls. MedianReclaim sent 6 median tags: 3 Daily and 3 Weekly. A median tag fires when price trades back to the middle of a day or week. One was on ES. Every count comes from imbalance-alert-router → Discord.

After the bell and Asia: NQ and ES slip under Monday's low

What printed on our board. From the close to 2:00 a.m. ET, nine UW hourlies. Two were on the indexes: YM's hourly bull at 51956 at 10:28 p.m. and RTY's hourly bull at 2809.4 at 1:48 a.m. MedianReclaim tagged the bond's Daily median and the euro's Weekly median.

What price did. ES and NQ both went under Monday's low. ES made its low at 7,546 at 2:06 a.m. NQ made its low at 28,038.25 at 2:21 a.m.

What we're watching because of it. A low that gets taken and then won back can turn into a failed breakdown. That only counts if price holds back over the line.

London: back over the lows

What printed on our board. Five UW hourlies from 2:00 a.m. on. ES's hourly bull at 7566.25 printed at 6:15 a.m. NQ's hourly bull at 28167 printed at 6:57 a.m. MedianReclaim tagged ES's Daily median at 7568.75 at 4:06 a.m., plus the bond's and the 10-year yield's Weekly medians.

What price did. NQ climbed back over Monday's low. ES got back over its October low, and stayed under Monday's low.

What we're watching because of it. ES and NQ both have hourly bulls under price. Those are the first lines buyers have to defend.

Overnight into New York: under October's low

NQ sits between Monday's low at 28,101.75 and October's low at 28,232.75. ES sits between its October low at 7,558.25 and Monday's low at 7,570.75. Both are inside their daily expected move.

Overnight sweep

As of 6:47 a.m. ET. Monday's levels are the regular session. Last week's include the overnight session.

ES took out Monday's low (also this week's low) at 7,570.75 by 24.75 points and is holding under it. It also took out last week's low at 7,558.25 by 12.25 points and got back above it. Overnight it traded from 15.25 points over to 30.25 points under Monday's 4:00 close (+0.20% / -0.40%). It's 13 points under that close now at 7,563.25 (-0.17%). That's acceptance under the low. At the open: Back above 7,570.75 is the first thing that changes it. Until then a rally into 7,570.75 is where sellers get tested.

NQ took out Monday's low (also this week's low) at 28,101.75 by 63.5 points and got back above it. It also traded back over last week's low at 28,232.75 by 51.75 points and slipped back under it. Overnight it traded from 145.75 points over to 100.5 points under Monday's 4:00 close (+0.52% / -0.36%). It's 64.25 points over that close now at 28,203 (+0.23%). A low that gets swept and reclaimed is a failed breakdown until it proves otherwise. At the open: Hold 28,101.75 and the move back toward 28,284.50 is in play. Lose 28,038.25 and the sweep turns into acceptance.

RTY took out Monday's low (also this week's low) at 2,815.70 by 9.9 points and is holding under it. At the extreme it was 12.9 points under the close (-0.46%), and it's 5.5 under now at 2,813.20 (-0.20%). Back above 2,815.70 is the first thing that changes it.

The split: NQ reclaimed, ES and RTY are holding under. When part of the index board accepts lower and part reclaims, respect the weak side until it reclaims.

Crude ran Monday's high at 97.99 by 0.70 and is holding over it. At the extreme it was 2.23 over the settle (+2.31%), and it's 2.06 over now at 98.52 (+2.14%).

Gold took out Monday's low at 3,906.30 by 2.2 and got back above it. At the extreme it was 65.5 under the settle (-1.65%), and it's 54.4 under now at 3,915.20 (-1.37%).

YM didn't cross-check this morning, so it is left out.

New York setup: the 2Down to watch

The month has its first part of a 2Down. The second part is a bounce that fails at the middle. Today, NQ's first test is October's low at 28,232.75 from underneath. If NQ gets back over it and holds past the first 5-minute bar, the 2Down is off the table for now. If NQ turns down at 28,232.75, that is the line doing its job as a ceiling.

ES's middle from Monday is 7,632.25. We call that line the PDM. PDM means the prior day's median, the halfway point of the day before. ES is well under it. Under ES's October low at 7,558.25, the bottom of its band at 7,490.65 is the next frame.

Let the first 5-minute bar finish. The cash open is 9:30 a.m. ET, which is 4:30 a.m. HT. Tuesday is Election Day, so headlines can move price after the close.

What the tools are saying

UW board: 14 hourlies, 0 Daily, 0 Weekly. Index prints: YM bull 51956, RTY bull 2809.4, ES bull 7566.25, NQ bull 28167.

MedianReclaim: 3 Daily tags and 3 Weekly tags. ES's Daily median at 7568.75 is the index tag.

Daily Expected-Move Map

Verified from the house expected-moves publisher off the 2026-11-02 close. A settle is the official closing price. The settles and volatility closes match a second quote feed, and the bands recompute to the cent from that feed. The 2x band is twice the move. It is the outer frame for a day that runs far. Publisher alerts: 0.

Vol (Monday close): VIX 21.42 · VXN 30.89 · GVZ 25.45 · OVX 62.69.

Weekly expected move (anchored Friday): ES 7,409.23 – 7,818.77 (±204.77) · NQ 27,407.81 – 29,660.19 (±1,126.19).

Read it like this. NQ's daily 2x low at 27,217.94 sits just over July's low at 27,201.50. NQ's band top at 28,582.28 sits just under November's open at 28,587.75.

Levels

All of our Key Levels live in one place.

• NQ: 28,891.25 Monday's high · 28,587.75 November's open · 28,582.28 expected-move high · 28,496.50 PDM · 28,232.75 October's low · 28,127.50 Monday's settle · 28,101.75 Monday's low · 28,038.25 overnight low · 27,672.72 expected-move low · 27,201.50 July's low · 26,399 last year's high
• ES: 7,693.75 Monday's high · 7,658.35 expected-move high · 7,632.25 PDM · 7,574.50 Monday's settle · 7,570.75 Monday's low · 7,558.25 October's low · 7,546 overnight low · 7,490.65 expected-move low

Monday's high and low and last week's high and low come from our prior key levels tool. Last week's range, high to low, is a separate frame from the Weekly Dealing Range, which is built from Monday's high, low, median and open.

What we're doing

NQ: under October's low. 28,232.75 is the line. Back over it and holding past the first 5-minute bar, the PDM at 28,496.50 is next. Under Monday's low at 28,101.75, the overnight low at 28,038.25 and then the band bottom at 27,672.72 are next. Support is thin below that until July's low.

ES: between two lows. Over Monday's low at 7,570.75, the ES hourly bull at 7566.25 and the median at 7568.75 sit just under it. Under 7,558.25 and holding, the band bottom at 7,490.65 is the frame.

Where we're wrong. NQ back over 28,232.75 and holding means the month's 2Down read is on pause.

Know the range before the bell

NQ under October's low, ES between two lows, and Election Day. The PonoTrading Expected Move indicator draws the daily, weekly and monthly bands on your chart. The alerts we counted here land in the free PonoTrading Discord prep room.

Sources

• imbalance-alert-router → Discord: FirstImbalance UW taps (ids 2720–2733, 14 sent) and MedianReclaim tags (ids 1075–1080, 6 sent), Monday 4:00 p.m. ET close to the run
• House expected-moves publisher: dry-run off the 2026-11-02 close, settles and volatility closes matched against a second quote feed
• Monday's levels, October's low, July's low, last year's high and the overnight lows: two price feeds of front-month futures bars

Before you act on any alert, look left. If it doesn't line up with the chart, it's just noise.

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Educational content only. Not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Verify all levels on your own feed before sizing.