Expected Moves
Expected Moves — April 22, 2026
PonoTrading Team
April 21, 2026
5 min read
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — VIX context, strategy bias, and links to historical performance data.
Expected Moves — April 22, 2026
VIX: 19.11 | VXN: 23.80 Methodology: Price × (IV/100) × √(DTE/365) Generated: April 21, 2026 at 10:30 PM HSTES — S&P 500 E-mini
Current Price: $7,076.90 | IV: 19.1% (VIX)| Period | 1 SD Range (68%) | 2 SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|
| Daily | $7,006.11 – $7,147.69 (±70.8) | $6,935.32 – $7,218.48 (±141.6) |
| Weekly | $6,918.61 – $7,235.19 (±158.3) | $6,760.33 – $7,393.47 (±316.6) |
| Monthly | $6,752.51 – $7,401.29 (±324.4) | $6,428.12 – $7,725.68 (±648.8) |
| Quarterly | $6,515.04 – $7,638.76 (±561.9) | $5,953.18 – $8,200.62 (±1,123.7) |
NQ — Nasdaq 100 E-mini
Current Price: $26,586.86 | IV: 23.8% (VXN)| Period | 1 SD Range (68%) | 2 SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|
| Daily | $26,255.65 – $26,918.07 (±331.2) | $25,924.45 – $27,249.27 (±662.4) |
| Weekly | $25,846.26 – $27,327.46 (±740.6) | $25,105.66 – $28,068.06 (±1,481.2) |
| Monthly | $25,069.09 – $28,104.63 (±1,517.8) | $23,551.31 – $29,622.41 (±3,035.6) |
| Quarterly | $23,958.00 – $29,215.72 (±2,628.9) | $21,329.14 – $31,844.58 (±5,257.7) |
YM — Dow E-mini
Current Price: $49,370.00 | IV: 19.1% (VIX)| Period | 1 SD Range (68%) | 2 SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|
| Daily | $48,876.17 – $49,863.83 (±493.8) | $48,382.34 – $50,357.66 (±987.7) |
| Weekly | $48,265.76 – $50,474.24 (±1,104.2) | $47,161.53 – $51,578.47 (±2,208.5) |
| Monthly | $47,106.99 – $51,633.01 (±2,263.0) | $44,843.97 – $53,896.03 (±4,526.0) |
| Quarterly | $45,450.35 – $53,289.65 (±3,919.7) | $41,530.69 – $57,209.31 (±7,839.3) |
RTY — Russell 2000 E-mini
Current Price: $2,765.60 | IV: 19.1% (VIX)| Period | 1 SD Range (68%) | 2 SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|
| Daily | $2,737.94 – $2,793.26 (±27.7) | $2,710.27 – $2,820.93 (±55.3) |
| Weekly | $2,703.74 – $2,827.46 (±61.9) | $2,641.89 – $2,889.31 (±123.7) |
| Monthly | $2,638.83 – $2,892.37 (±126.8) | $2,512.06 – $3,019.14 (±253.5) |
Tags:expected moveoptions datavolatilityVIXVXN
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PonoTrading Team
PonoTrading publishes futures trading education, market structure notes, expected move analysis, and practical indicator workflows for retail traders.
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