Expected Moves
Expected Moves — April 21, 2026
PonoTrading Team
April 20, 2026
5 min read
Daily expected move ranges for ES, NQ, YM, RTY, GC, CL — VIX context, strategy bias, and links to historical performance data.
Expected Moves — April 21, 2026
VIX: 19.17 | VXN: 22.93 Methodology: Price × (IV/100) × √(DTE/365) Generated: April 20, 2026 at 10:30 PM HSTES — S&P 500 E-mini
Current Price: $7,102.40 | IV: 19.2% (VIX)| Period | 1 SD Range (68%) | 2 SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|
| Daily | $7,031.13 – $7,173.67 (±71.3) | $6,959.87 – $7,244.93 (±142.5) |
| Weekly | $6,943.04 – $7,261.76 (±159.4) | $6,783.69 – $7,421.11 (±318.7) |
| Monthly | $6,775.82 – $7,428.98 (±326.6) | $6,449.24 – $7,755.56 (±653.2) |
| Quarterly | $6,536.75 – $7,668.05 (±565.6) | $5,971.09 – $8,233.71 (±1,131.3) |
NQ — Nasdaq 100 E-mini
Current Price: $26,600.80 | IV: 22.9% (VXN)| Period | 1 SD Range (68%) | 2 SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|
| Daily | $26,281.53 – $26,920.07 (±319.3) | $25,962.27 – $27,239.33 (±638.5) |
| Weekly | $25,886.90 – $27,314.70 (±713.9) | $25,173.00 – $28,028.60 (±1,427.8) |
| Monthly | $25,137.74 – $28,063.86 (±1,463.1) | $23,674.68 – $29,526.92 (±2,926.1) |
| Quarterly | $24,066.71 – $29,134.89 (±2,534.1) | $21,532.61 – $31,668.99 (±5,068.2) |
YM — Dow E-mini
Current Price: $49,515.00 | IV: 19.2% (VIX)| Period | 1 SD Range (68%) | 2 SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|
| Daily | $49,018.16 – $50,011.84 (±496.8) | $48,521.33 – $50,508.67 (±993.7) |
| Weekly | $48,404.04 – $50,625.96 (±1,111.0) | $47,293.08 – $51,736.92 (±2,221.9) |
| Monthly | $47,238.21 – $51,791.79 (±2,276.8) | $44,961.43 – $54,068.57 (±4,553.6) |
| Quarterly | $45,571.49 – $53,458.51 (±3,943.5) | $41,627.98 – $57,402.02 (±7,887.0) |
RTY — Russell 2000 E-mini
Current Price: $2,777.90 | IV: 19.2% (VIX)| Period | 1 SD Range (68%) | 2 SD Range (95%) |
|---|---|---|
| Daily | $2,750.03 – $2,805.77 (±27.9) | $2,722.15 – $2,833.65 (±55.8) |
| Weekly | $2,715.57 – $2,840.23 (±62.3) | $2,653.25 – $2,902.55 (±124.7) |
| Monthly | $2,650.17 – $2,905.63 (±127.7) | $2,522.43 – $3,033.37 (±255.5) |
Tags:expected moveoptions datavolatilityVIXVXN
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PonoTrading Team
PonoTrading publishes futures trading education, market structure notes, expected move analysis, and practical indicator workflows for retail traders.
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