NQ Lost the Stamp Middle at 27,652

Thursday, November 5, 2026 · After the Close

The middle that launched Wednesday's bounce did not hold today. NQ traded through the daily stamp's middle at 27,652 by 9:47 a.m. ET and kept falling. By the cash low it was 934 points under that middle, at 26,718. It finished near 26,760.

The stamp is the body of the daily candle that made a swing low. It only counts when the next day's candle body swallows it whole. Its middle is the level. NQ's stamp is the July 29 candle, with a body from 27,342 to 27,962. Its middle is 27,652. Wednesday turned up near that middle. Today price went through it.

Chip stocks led the flush. CNBC reported Qualcomm's weak outlook and a semiconductor selloff after the midterms, with Nvidia down more than 9%. The Guardian linked the same day to worries that Democratic wins could curb AI datacenter buildout. Our feeds show the SOX down about 12%. We cannot prove which headline moved which tick.

This morning's expected move for NQ ran from 28,191.74 to 28,941.76. The expected move is the range the options market prices for the day. The first five-minute bar already poked under that low. The 2x band low at 27,816.73 gave way by 9:40 a.m. The weekly expected-move low at 27,407.81 gave way by 10:05 a.m. Price finished more than 1,400 points under the daily band.

PDM means the prior day's median, the halfway point of the day before. Wednesday's PDM was 28,687. This morning's prep laid out two paths. One: get back over the PDM past the first 5-minute bar, and Wednesday's high at 28,969 comes into view. That path never triggered. Buyers never tagged 28,687. The other: fail under the PDM and lose the overnight low at 28,167.75, and the give-back is still running. That path played from the open. Cash opened under October's low at 28,232.75, lost the overnight low in the first minute, then went through the stamp.

The bigger line is still 30,178, the swing high from Oct. 28. A daily close over it would confirm that November's 2Down is over. A 2Down means the month broke under last month's low without taking out last month's high. Today's high was 28,228.25, about 1,950 points under that line. Nothing about today changes that frame.

Members get the alert counts, the prints at the turns, how this morning's paths played, the session by the hour, and Friday's levels. The full tape is below.

Here's the count. In New York cash, 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, the UW imbalance board sent 16 alerts: 11 hourly, 3 Daily, 2 Weekly. UW prints are unfinished-imbalance alerts from our board when price returns to a marked level. MedianReclaim added 38 tags: 18 Daily, 20 Weekly. A MedianReclaim tag fires when price trades back to the middle of a day or a week. Both boards land in the free prep room.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% to 24,314.997. The S&P 500 fell 4.36% to 7,353.73. The Dow fell 3.44% to 51,523.06. The SOX fell about 12%. The VIX rose about 70% from Wednesday's close near 16.6 to near 28.2.

How this morning's paths played

This morning's RTH Market Prep set the map.

Downside path played out: Fail under the PDM and lose 28,167.75. That ran. The overnight low was gone in the first minute. Price then flushed through the stamp middle.

Untriggered (the reclaim path): Over 28,687 past the first 5-minute bar, with Wednesday's high in view. That never started. The first 5-minute bar ran from 28,203.25 down to 27,976.25. The condition never fired.

Still the frame: 30,178 stays the line until a daily close over it. Today's high was 28,228.25. Drop-base-drop did not flip.

What the tools said

UW board in cash: 11 hourlies, 3 Dailies, 2 Weeklies. The index prints:

• ES hourly bull 7704 at 9:30 a.m. ET. ES was already sliding. It ran to a cash low of 7,377.25.
• NQ hourly bull 27768.75 at 9:41 a.m. Touch at 27,763.25. That zone sits just over the stamp middle. NQ was through 27,652 six minutes later and did not reclaim the print.
• RTY hourly bull 2804.4 at 10:25. Then ES hourly bull 7512.75 the same minute.
• NQ Weekly bull 26884.75 at 10:51 a.m. Touch at 26,874.50. Price tagged it on the way down to 26,718.
• RTY Daily bull 2758.9 at 12:03, then another RTY hourly bull 2748 at 12:30.

The other prints were Nikkei, bonds, copper, Bitcoin futures and silver.

MedianReclaim: 18 Daily tags and 20 Weekly tags. ES's Weekly prior median at 7688.875 tagged at 9:31 a.m. as the flush began. ES's Daily median at 7602.375 tagged at 10:50 a.m. with price already near 7,466. On a washout day the median board lights up behind price. Look left before you treat a tag as a floor.

The session by the hour

NQ: It opened at 28,203.25 and made its cash high at 28,228.25 in the first minute. It lost the overnight low and the daily expected-move low right away. It lost the 2x band low at 27,816.73 by 9:40, the stamp middle at 27,652 by 9:47, the weekly expected-move low at 27,407.81 by 10:05, and the stamp body low at 27,342 by 10:11. The cash low was 26,718 at 3:58 p.m. ET. It finished near 26,760. Through 4:04 p.m. ET, the full session (overnight included) had printed as low as 26,624.75 — futures were still open, so that is not a settled final low.

ES: It opened near 7,707.50, under its PDM at 7,713, and never looked back. It lost its expected-move low at 7,653.38 by 9:40 and its 2x band low at 7,586.25 by 9:57. Cash low 7,377.25. Finished near 7,383.

YM fell from a cash high of 53,859 to a low of 51,584. RTY fell from 2,873.40 to 2,729.60.

Levels for Friday

Thursday's full-session range, overnight included, becomes the new day frame from our prior key levels.

• NQ: 30,178 swing high · 28,969 Wednesday's high · 28,687 Wednesday's PDM · 28,232.75 October's low · 28,167.75 Wednesday overnight low · 27,652 stamp middle (body 27,342 to 27,962) · 27,407.81 weekly expected-move low · 26,718 Thursday's cash low · 26,624.75 low through 4:04 p.m. ET · 26,399 last year's high · 25,478.50 this year's open
• ES: 7,746.25 Wednesday's high · 7,713 Wednesday's PDM · 7,377.25 Thursday's cash low · 7,365.25 low through 4:04 p.m. ET

Friday's expected-move bands come off Thursday's settle. They will be in the morning prep. The BLS Employment Situation for October 2026 is scheduled Friday, Nov. 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

What to do — and what kills it

The read: NQ stayed below PDM and lost the overnight low from the open, then went through the stamp middle that launched Wednesday. Drop-base-drop stays the frame.

First levels back up: Thursday's cash low at 26,718 is the nearest edge. Above that, the Weekly UW print zone near 26,885 and the stamp body / middle cluster at 27,342 to 27,652 is the repair map — not a call to buy it.

What would change the bigger picture: a daily close over 30,178. Short of that, today's flush fits the frame.

One question to ask yourself: When NQ lost 27,652 this morning, what on your chart told you that middle still mattered — or that it had already failed?

If you want the bands on your own chart, the Expected Move indicator draws them. All of our Key Levels live in one place. Or come watch them with us in the free futures prep room.

More: RTH Market Prep, Nov 5

Sources

Prices checked against two independent real-time quote feeds and one-minute futures bars from both. Where the two disagreed, we say "near." Expected-move bands from the house expected-moves publisher, matched against a second feed in this morning's prep. Alert counts from sent UW and MedianReclaim Discord receipts for the New York cash window. Daily stamp and 30,178 line are founder-set. Chip/AI selloff context: CNBC, The Guardian. Friday jobs schedule: BLS Employment Situation calendar.

An alert is a heads-up, not an entry. Look left first and check that it lines up with your chart.

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Educational content only. Not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Verify all levels on your own feed before sizing.