27,652 Held. 30,178 Still Rules

Thursday, November 5, 2026

Our expected move for NQ today runs from 28,191.74 to 28,941.76. The expected move is the range the options market is pricing for a set time. Overnight NQ dipped to 28,167.75, just under the bottom of that range, and came back to about 28,420. It is still under Wednesday's middle. ES sits near 7,736, inside its band of 7,653.38 to 7,787.62.

Here is the bigger picture. Wednesday's big run started at our daily stamp. A stamp is the body of the daily candle that made a swing low. It only counts when the next day's candle body swallows it. Its middle is the level. NQ's stamp is the July 29 candle, with a body from 27,342 to 27,962. Its middle is 27,652. NQ turned up right near it late Tuesday night and ran about 1,350 points to Wednesday's high at 28,969. Then it gave back about 400 points, close to 30% of the run, into the settle at 28,566.75. A settle is the official closing price.

That run was strong. It still does not change our frame. Our frame for NQ is drop, base, drop. Price drops, goes sideways for a while (the base), then can drop again. The push lower likely isn't over until NQ closes a day above the higher swing high at 30,178. That was the Oct. 28 high, last week's high. November is also a 2Down on NQ. A 2Down means price broke under last month's low. NQ broke October's low at 28,232.75, and last night it dipped under it again.

From Wednesday's 4:00 p.m. ET close to about 6:50 a.m. ET, the UW board sent 13 prints: 10 hourlies, 3 Daily, 0 Weekly. A UW print is an imbalance alert. It fires when price comes back to a level where buyers or sellers left a gap. MedianReclaim sent 9 median tags: 7 Daily and 2 Weekly. A median tag fires when price trades back to the middle of a day or week. Every count comes from imbalance-alert-router → Discord.

After the bell and Asia: the give-back keeps going

What printed on our board. NQ got an hourly UW bull at 28455 at 7:57 p.m. ET. Its zone runs from 28455 to 28570. MedianReclaim tagged NQ's Weekly median at 28292.375 at 8:17 p.m. ET.

What price did. NQ made its overnight high at 28,668.50 right at the 6:00 p.m. ET reopen. That was still under Wednesday's middle. Then it slid. It traded under Wednesday's low at 28,405 and under October's low at 28,232.75. It made its low at 28,167.75 at 12:50 a.m. ET. ES made its low at 7,691 at 12:45 a.m.

What we're watching because of it. A buy level that gets traded through is not a floor anymore. The weekly middle is where NQ found its feet. That is a spot, not a call.

London: a lift under the middle

What printed on our board. ES got an hourly UW bear at 7723.75 at 4:51 a.m. ET. ES was at 7728 at the touch.

What price did. NQ came back over October's low and Wednesday's low, to about 28,420. ES climbed back to about 7,736, just over that seller's mark. Its overnight high is 7,738.75.

What we're watching because of it. ES is sitting right on a seller's mark. NQ is sitting under its PDM. Those are the first tests.

Overnight into New York: under the PDM, over the stamp

PDM means the prior day's median, the halfway point of the day before. NQ's PDM is 28,687, the middle of Wednesday's 28,405 to 28,969 range. ES's PDM is 7,713. NQ is under its PDM and ES is over its own. NQ is still about 770 points over the stamp middle at 27,652, and about 1,760 points under the 30,178 line.

Overnight sweep

As of 7:14 a.m. ET. Wednesday's levels are the regular session. Last week's include the overnight session.

ES didn't take out any of the levels overnight. Overnight it traded from 17 points over to 30.75 points under Wednesday's 4:00 close (+0.22% / -0.40%). It's 14 points over that close now at 7,735.75 (+0.18%). At the open: The overnight high 7,738.75 and low 7,691 are the first edges, then Wednesday's high at 7,746.25 and Wednesday's low at 7,679.75.

YM ran Wednesday's high (also this week's high) at 53,631 by 282 points and is holding over it. At the extreme it was 405 points over the close (+0.76%), and it's 323 over now at 53,831 (+0.60%). Back under 53,631 turns it into a failed breakout.

RTY ran last week's high at 2,880.20 by 8.1 points and gave it back. At the extreme it was 22 points over the close (+0.77%), and it's 13 over now at 2,879.30 (+0.45%). Stay under 2,880.20 and the high was a fake.

Crude took out Wednesday's low (also this week's low) at 87.13 by 0.48 and got back above it. At the extreme it was 1.72 over the settle (+1.95%), and it's 1.39 over now at 89.51 (+1.58%).

Gold ran Wednesday's high (also this week's high) at 4,081.20 (by 74.6) and last week's high at 4,097.20 (by 58.6) and is holding over both. At the extreme it was 82.8 over the settle (+2.03%), and it's 64.8 over now at 4,137.80 (+1.59%).

NQ didn't cross-check this morning, so it is left out.

New York setup: a give-back inside a drop

A level and a line mean little on their own. What matters is which Pono level price is near. Today NQ is between two of them. Overhead is its PDM at 28,687. Under it are October's low at 28,232.75 and the overnight low at 28,167.75. Under that, the stamp middle at 27,652 is the floor that launched Wednesday's run.

So the job today is simple. Watch the PDM. If NQ gets back over 28,687 and holds past the first 5-minute bar, Wednesday's high at 28,969 is in view. If NQ fails under it and loses 28,167.75, the give-back is still running. The drop read stays in place either way until 30,178 breaks on a daily close.

Let the first 5-minute bar finish. The cash open is 9:30 a.m. ET, which is 4:30 a.m. HT. Jobless claims and the third-quarter productivity report come out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Fed speaker Barkin is at 9:10 a.m. ET. Friday brings the October jobs report. Those can push price into our levels fast.

What the tools are saying

UW board: 10 hourlies, 3 Daily, 0 Weekly. Index prints: NQ bull 28455 (hourly) and ES bear 7723.75 (hourly). YM and RTY had none. The 3 Daily prints were on gold, crude and silver.

MedianReclaim: 7 Daily tags and 2 Weekly tags. The index tag was NQ's Weekly median at 28292.375.

Daily Expected-Move Map

Verified from the house expected-moves publisher off the 2026-11-04 close. The settles and volatility closes match a second quote feed, and the bands recompute to the cent from that feed. The 2x band is twice the move. It is the outer frame for a day that runs far. Publisher alerts: 3 (YM and gold over their weekly bands, crude under its weekly band).

Vol (Wednesday close): VIX 16.61 · VXN 25.08 · GVZ 24.11 · OVX 58.81

Weekly expected move (anchored Friday): ES 7,409.23 – 7,818.77 (±204.77) · NQ 27,407.81 – 29,660.19 (±1,126.19).

Read it like this. NQ's overnight low poked just under its daily band and came back in. The stamp middle at 27,652 sits about 244 points over the weekly band low at 27,407.81. YM starts the day over its weekly band top.

Levels

All of our Key Levels live in one place.

• NQ: 30,178 swing high (Oct. 28, last week's high) · 28,969 Wednesday's high · 28,941.76 expected-move high · 28,687 PDM · 28,668.50 overnight high · 28,566.75 Wednesday's settle · 28,455 UW hourly bull · 28,405 Wednesday's low · 28,292.375 Weekly median tag · 28,232.75 October's low · 28,191.74 expected-move low · 28,167.75 overnight low · 27,652 stamp middle · 27,407.81 weekly band low · 26,399 last year's high · 25,478.50 this year's open
• ES: 7,787.62 expected-move high · 7,746.25 Wednesday's high · 7,738.75 overnight high · 7,723.75 UW hourly bear · 7,720.50 Wednesday's settle · 7,713 PDM · 7,691 overnight low · 7,679.75 Wednesday's low · 7,653.38 expected-move low

Wednesday's high and low, last week's high, October's low and last year's high come from our prior key levels tool. This year's open comes from our current key levels tool. Both year levels sit far under price. They are the big frame on the monthly chart, not today's map.

What we're doing

NQ: under the PDM, over the stamp. The test is 28,668.50 to 28,687. Over it and holding, 28,941.76 to 28,969 is next. Back under 28,232.75 after a stall there, the overnight low at 28,167.75 comes back into view.

ES: on a seller's mark. 7,723.75 to 7,738.75 is the test. Back under the PDM at 7,713, the overnight low at 7,691 is next.

Where we're wrong. A daily close over 30,178 on NQ ends the drop-base-drop read. Nothing short of that changes the bigger picture. Inside the day, NQ holding over 28,969 would tell us buyers are stronger than we think.

One question for you. If NQ tags its PDM at 28,687 this morning, what will the 5-minute candle need to show you?

Know the range before the bell

A strong run off the stamp, a give-back, and the 30,178 line still far overhead. The PonoTrading Expected Move indicator draws the daily, weekly and monthly bands on your chart. The alerts we counted here land in the free PonoTrading Discord prep room.

Sources

• imbalance-alert-router → Discord: FirstImbalance UW taps (13 sent, h1/d1/w1, Wednesday 4:00 p.m. ET to 6:52 a.m. ET) and MedianReclaim tags (ids 1175–1183, 9 sent, Wednesday 4:00 p.m. ET to 7:00 a.m. ET)
• House expected-moves publisher: dry-run off the 2026-11-04 close, settles and volatility closes matched against a second quote feed
• Wednesday's levels, October's low, the overnight highs and lows, last year's high and this year's open: two price feeds of front-month futures bars
• Daily stamp: July 29 NQ daily candle body, founder-set level
• Economic calendar: two public calendars agree on jobless claims and productivity at 8:30 and Barkin at 9:10 a.m. ET

Don't take a trade just because an alert printed. Look left and see if the chart agrees.

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Educational content only. Not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Verify all levels on your own feed before sizing.