A Trap Door Under NQ

Monday, November 2, 2026 · After the Close

This morning our prior key levels gave NQ Friday's low at 28,232.75. Friday was the last day of October, and our prior month levels show that same number as October's low. NQ broke it at 2:47 p.m. ET Monday and made its low at 28,101.75 at 3:41 p.m.

That makes November a 2Down on the month on day one. Our 2Up is when price wicks over a prior high, then pulls back to the median and bounces. A 2Down is the mirror: price wicks under a prior low, then a bounce fails at the median and the door opens lower. NQ has done the first part. It took out last month's low. A bounce back to October's middle at 29,924.625 hasn't happened.

On the monthly chart, that opens a trap door. Last year's high at 26,399 sits about 1,730 points, or about 6%, under Monday's close. Our levels show one big line in between: July's low at 27,201.50. A fast trip down to last year's high is a higher-time-frame possibility to watch. The daily levels still come first.

NQ went over Friday's cash high at 28,860.50 first. Our UW imbalance board sent an NQ hourly bear at 28871.5 at 10:27 a.m., two minutes before the 28,891.25 top. A UW alert fires when price comes back to a spot where buyers or sellers left a gap. NQ fell 789.50 points from there.

ES held its October low, also last week's low, at 7,558.25 during Monday's session. The overnight session has since slipped under it.

Every index stayed inside its daily expected move all session. The expected move is the range the options market prices for the day.

Members get the alert counts, the session by the hour, every level checked, the scoring and Tuesday's levels. The full tape is below.

Here's the count. In New York cash, 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, the imbalance board sent 9 alerts: 8 hourly, 1 Daily, 0 Weekly. MedianReclaim added 7 tags: 4 Daily, 3 Weekly. Every count is a sent alert from imbalance-alert-router → Discord, superseded alerts dropped, deduped.

Mag 8 earnings on deck

AAPL reports before the next session. Our Key Levels and the expected move in this post are the map into the print, and the UW imbalance alerts and MedianReclaim tags show where size shows up. Size for the gap risk and let our levels decide, not the headline.

• AAPL reports tonight, Mon Nov 2, after the close.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% to 25,164.32. It was up early, with a high at 25,799.46. The S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40. The Dow rose 0.41%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a basket of chip stocks, fell 3.37%.

How the day traded

NQ opened at 28,721.25, just over its PDM near 28,705. PDM means the prior day's median, the halfway point of the day before. Its first 5-minute bar closed near 28,709. The ISM factory survey came out at 10:00 a.m. NQ climbed after it. It went over Friday's cash high at 10:24 a.m. and topped at 28,891.25 at 10:29. It was back under 28,860.50 by 10:31 and last traded over its PDM at 11:19 a.m. It broke 28,500 at 12:45 p.m. The slide picked up after 2:00 p.m. NQ went under Friday's low at 28,232.75 at 2:47 p.m., was last over it at 3:30 p.m. and made its low at 28,101.75 at 3:41 p.m. When a market trades over the day before's high and under its low on the same day, traders call it an outside day. NQ did that today against Friday's cash session.

ES opened at 7,649.25, over its PDM. Its first 5-minute bar closed at 7,648.50 and the morning low was 7,641.50 at 9:38 a.m. It topped at 7,693.75 at 10:28 a.m., 19.25 points short of Friday's high. That top sat just over the middle of last week's range at 7,688.875. ES lost its PDM at 12:40 p.m. and was last over it at 1:40 p.m. It went under Friday's settle at 7,614 at 2:18 p.m. Its low was 7,570.75 at 3:58 p.m. It finished near 7,576.

YM was the strong one. It topped at 52,581 at 10:27 a.m., stayed over Friday's settle at 51,918 all session and finished at 52,141. RTY topped at 2,858.40 at 10:25 a.m., went under Friday's settle at 2,821.30 at 2:40 p.m. and made its low at 2,815.70 at the close.

The session by the hour

Both feeds matched to the tick on every high, low and alert time in this table. The NQ 5-minute close, the 10:00 NQ print and both closes are where they split by a tick or two, so we say "near" for those.

Members only: the rest of the board

Index closes: S&P 500 −0.51% to 7,541.40. Nasdaq Composite −1.07% to 25,164.32. Dow +0.41% to 51,983.98. Russell 2000 −0.21% to 2,805.88. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index −3.37% to 10,328.33.

The chip and AI names: Oracle fell 8.76% to 119.22. It filed on Monday to raise $20 billion, half in new stock and half in bonds, to pay for its AI build-out. Marvell fell 12.72%, Lumentum 18.59%, Intel 8.80% and AMD 7.52%.

Rates and fear gauges: The 10-year Treasury yield finished near 4.91%. The VIX, a gauge of how much protection traders are paying for, rose to near 21. Our two feeds split on its last print, so we're not pinning it closer.

Scoring this morning's call

This morning's prep, ES Starts Over Friday's Middle, said ES holds over its PDM at 7,635.625, with Friday's high at 7,713 the first test over it.

• ES, the PDM at the open: hold over 7,635.625 past the first 5-minute bar. ES's first bar closed at 7,648.50 and it held the PDM until 12:40 p.m. Right.
• ES, the first test: over the PDM, Friday's high at 7,713 is next. ES topped at 7,693.75, 19.25 points short. Wrong. The test never came.
• The 2Up: a 2Up is when price wicks over a prior high, then pulls back to the PDM and bounces. The prep called it a setup to watch. ES never got over 7,713, so it never formed. Right to wait.
• ES, under the PDM: under 7,635.625 and staying there, Friday's low at 7,558.25 is next. ES lost the PDM at 12:40 p.m. and went to 7,570.75, 12.50 points short of it. Half right. The direction was right, the line didn't get hit.
• NQ, over Friday's cash high: over 28,860.50, the band top at 29,271.26 is the next frame. NQ got 30.75 points over it and turned back. Wrong.
• NQ, the floor: under the PDM, Friday's low at 28,232.75 is the floor. NQ broke it at 2:47 p.m. Wrong. The floor didn't hold.
• The bands: every index inside its daily expected move. All four stayed inside all session. Right.

Score: three right, three wrong, one half right. The ES read held up best. The NQ read missed on both ends.

What the tools said

Imbalance (UW), index contracts in cash:

• YM hourly bear 52503 (10:00 a.m.): YM went 78 points over it to its 52,581 top at 10:27 a.m., then finished 362 points under it.
• NQ hourly bear 28871.5 (10:27 a.m.): NQ went 19.75 points over it to the 28,891.25 top two minutes later, then fell 789.50 points from that top.
• NQ hourly bull 28399.5 (2:05 p.m.): NQ bounced to 28,423.50 at 2:09 p.m., then went 297.75 points under it to the 28,101.75 low.
• ES hourly bull 7595.25 (2:27 p.m.): ES bounced to 7,617 at 3:03 p.m., then finished near 7,576, under it.

The other 5 cash imbalance alerts were outside the index contracts: Micro Bitcoin's hourly bulls at 77690, 77415 and 77105, the 10-year note's Daily bear at 106.984375 and copper's hourly bear at 6.553.

MedianReclaim: no index contracts today. The tags were the 10-year note's Daily median at 106.7109375 (9:52 a.m.), the euro's Daily and Weekly medians at 1.121475 (10:36 a.m.), the 10-year yield's Daily and Weekly medians at 4.919 (3:06 p.m.) and the 30-year bond's Daily and Weekly medians at 107.96875 (3:18 p.m.).

Expected move: today's daily bands came off Friday's settle. ES's was 7,479.95–7,748.05 and NQ's 27,796.74–29,271.26. Both stayed inside all session. NQ's low was 305.01 points over the bottom of its band, and ES's was 90.80 over.

Levels for Tuesday

Tuesday's daily expected-move bands get set off today's settle. The weekly bands still run off Friday's close. The rest of these levels live on the key levels hub.

Overnight handoff (Monday → Tuesday)

Apple's call ends before Globex reopens. Check the reopen against our Key Levels above and watch where the UW alerts print first.

AMD reports after Tuesday's close. Tuesday is also Election Day, so the vote count lands in Tuesday night's session.

The week, through our levels

Monday took both sides of Friday on NQ and broke October's low on the first day of November. ES stayed inside Friday's range and held its October low at 7,558.25 during Monday's session. The overnight session has since slipped under it. RTY's October low at 2,723.30 is far under Monday's 2,815.70 low. YM went up while NQ went down. Monday's high and low are now the first lines for the rest of the week.

What to do — and what kills it

NQ finished near its low, under Friday's and October's low at 28,232.75. That line is overhead now. Over it, the lost UW hourly bull at 28399.5 and 28,500 are next. Back over 28,232.75 and holding takes the 2Down off the table for now. Under Monday's low at 28,101.75, the bottom of Monday's band at 27,796.74 was the outer frame. Under that, July's low at 27,201.50 is the only big line our levels show before last year's high at 26,399. Support is thin in there.

ES finished 5.25 points over its low and 17.75 over October's low at 7,558.25. The overnight session dipped to 7,554.25 and came back to about 7,560. That line is still the ES line for Tuesday. Over 7,614 and the 7,635.625 PDM, the morning range is back in play.

What kills it: ES under 7,558.25 and NQ under 28,101.75, both holding past the first 5-minute bar, means the selling is spreading past NQ. Apple tonight can move both before the open.

If you want the expected-move bands on your own chart, the Expected Move indicator draws them. Or come watch the levels with us in the free futures prep room.

More: RTH Market Prep, Nov 2

Sources

Prices checked against two independent real-time quote feeds and one-minute futures bars from both. Where the two disagreed, we say so or say "near." Expected-move bands from the house expected-moves publisher, matched against a second feed in this morning's prep. Oracle's raise: the company's filings, as reported by two news outlets. Apple's and AMD's report times: each company's investor-relations page plus a second calendar. Alert counts from imbalance-alert-router → Discord receipts, deduped.

An alert is a heads-up, not an entry. Look left first and check that it lines up with your chart.

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Educational content only. Not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Verify all levels on your own feed before sizing.