Run and Given Back

Friday, October 16, 2026

ES ran Thursday's high overnight straight into its Weekly median, and MedianReclaim tagged it. At 11:51 p.m. ET ES tagged its Weekly median at 7802.125, one minute after it took out Thursday's high at 7,801.75. NQ tagged its Daily median at 30083.375 in the same minute. Both gave the highs back. ES is at 7,796.25 and NQ is at 30,076. From Thursday's 6 p.m. reopen to the run, the imbalance board sent 19 prints: 16 hourlies, 2 Daily, 1 Weekly, and MedianReclaim added 3 Daily median tags and 3 Weekly median tags. Every count is a Discord alert from imbalance-alert-router.

That's a quieter board than Thursday. Only three Daily and Weekly UW prints, and two of them were on the pound. The one index print on a higher timeframe was the Russell's Daily sell level at 2786.5.

Here's the backdrop. ES, NQ and the Dow all ran Thursday's highs overnight and gave them back. The Russell is the one holding over its high. Gold is up again. Nothing moved far. ES is 5.25 points over Thursday's close.

It's also monthly options expiration. That can pin a market to its levels into the close. The question at the open is whether ES and NQ get back over the highs they gave back, or whether those were the tops.

Here's what the board printed, session by session, and what we're doing about it.

Asia: the highs get run and tagged

What printed on our board. Twelve UW prints in Asia. The 10-year yield hourly bull 5.066 at 6:00 p.m. ET and hourly bear 5.085 at 7:07 p.m. NQ hourly bear 30064 at 9:01 p.m., touched at 30064. Silver hourly bear 57.53 at 9:10 p.m. The dollar index hourly bull 102.027 at 10:01 p.m., hourly bear 102.044 at 11:41 p.m. and