The 10-Year Is Today’s Coupon. CPI Is Still Friday.
Wednesday keeps Tuesday’s reopen frame and adds the 10-year reopening. ECEC and QSS at 10:00. The 17-week closes at 11:30. The coupon closes at 1:00. Do not spend Friday’s CPI on a Wednesday stop.
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Tuesday reopened cash into supply and scored the holiday book as unfinished. Wednesday keeps that frame and adds the 10-year reopening. ECEC and QSS print at 10:00. The 17-week closes competitive at 11:30. The coupon closes at 1:00. Do not spend Friday’s CPI on a Wednesday stop.
Morning Pulse is the day clock, not a forecast. Tuesday already wrote the reopen: Thursday’s 29,201.26 and Friday’s PDC / CDO traveled as location. The holiday tape did not accept them. From the highs or the lows, the median was liquidity. That is still the desk frame. Missed levels stay missed.
Confirmed clocks
All times Eastern. Cash open is 3:30 a.m. Hawaii. Offering amounts are the announced sizes.
| Time (ET) | What is confirmed | What the desk uses it for |
|---|---|---|
| Wed Sep 9, 10:00 a.m. | BLS Employer Costs for Employee Compensation (ECEC). | Labor-cost print. Not CPI. Not a rate call. |
| Wed Sep 9, 10:00 a.m. | Census Quarterly Services Survey (QSS). | Secondary. Not advance monthly retail sales. |
| Wed Sep 9, 11:00 a.m. / 11:30 a.m. | 17-week bill, announced $72 billion. Noncompetitive, then competitive. | Front-end supply. Do not average into the 1:00 coupon. |
| Wed Sep 9, 12:00 p.m. / 1:00 p.m. | 9-year 11-month note (10-year reopening), announced $39 billion. Noncompetitive, then competitive. | The coupon clock. Duration and curve. Not Friday’s inflation vote. |
| Fri Sep 11, 8:30 a.m. | CPI and Real Earnings. | Tomorrow’s map. Do not spend it today. |
| Wed Sep 16, 8:30 a.m. | Advance monthly retail sales. | Not today’s QSS. |
Announced offering amounts are the size Treasury put on the card. They are not a forecast of the stop or of what equities “should” do.
What Wednesday has to prove
Cash continues Tuesday’s reopen. A quiet overnight is not repair. Location from last week and from Tuesday’s desk still travels. Permission does not. If you are still on 29,201.26 or the PDC / CDO band, write size and invalidation before the next impulse — not after.
The 10:00 prints are not CPI. ECEC is employer costs. QSS is a quarterly services survey. Neither is August CPI. Neither is the Friday 8:30 risk. Pre-define which clock you are in before either number hits.
Supply is two votes again. The 17-week closes competitive at 11:30. The 10-year reopening closes competitive at 1:00. A first-hour equity structure can be right and still leave the coupon untouched. A coupon stop can move duration without rewriting the invalidation you wrote at 9:30 — unless cash accepts that rewrite.
Median still frames the if. Coming from the highs or the lows, the median becomes liquidity. That does not mean you trade the level point blank. Longs into clear resistance stay poor risk. The cleaner if-trade sits around the session midpoint / current-day median only if price actually goes there. Missed = no chase. A daily that never sent is not a later entry.
What not to mix
CPI is Friday. August CPI and Real Earnings are the inflation vote. Today does not spend that risk. If you plan to hold through Friday 8:30, that size belongs on Friday’s card.
FOMC is next week. September 15–16. A 10-year stop is a supply and curve print. It is not the statement, the projections, or the press conference.
QSS is not retail sales. Advance monthly retail sales print Wednesday, September 16. Do not trade a retail number that is not on today’s official calendar.
Earnings are thin today. The week’s names still sit Thursday after the close and Friday before the open. Do not invent a Wednesday earnings slate.
Steal this / leave that
Steal this: Mark the carry before you trade the open. Write which auction clock you are in — 11:30 bills, or 1:00 coupon — before either result hits. Keep the median-as-liquidity frame. Leave the chase at the high alone.
Leave that: Calling Tuesday’s reopen finished because Wednesday opened. Mixing ECEC or QSS into Friday’s CPI. Averaging the 17-week stop with the 10-year. Chasing a missed daily.
The week still has a sequence. This session only has to do its job: keep the reopen honest, then take the coupon without borrowing Friday.
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Daily Expected-Move Map
Verified from the house expected-moves publisher off the 2026-09-08 close. Not a forecast. The statistical field the auction has to respect or reject.
| Contract | Anchor Close | Daily 1SD | Daily 2SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 7,680.50 | 7,617.30 – 7,743.70 (±63.20) | 7,554.11 – 7,806.89 |
| NQ | 29,538.75 | 29,203.09 – 29,874.41 (±335.66) | 28,867.42 – 30,210.08 |
| YM | 52,832 | 52,397 – 53,267 (±435) | 51,963 – 53,701 |
| RTY | 2,963.60 | 2,939.21 – 2,987.99 (±24.39) | 2,914.83 – 3,012.37 |
| GC | 4,393.90 | 4,331.21 – 4,456.59 (±62.69) | 4,268.51 – 4,519.29 |
| CL | 93.03 | 90.66 – 95.40 (±2.37) | 88.30 – 97.76 |
Weekly (anchored 2026-09-04): NQ 1SD 28,744.74 – 30,385.76 (±820.51). ES 1SD 7,566.62 – 7,877.38 (±155.38).
Vol snapshot at run: VIX 16.16% | VXN 22.20%. Compressed day field — acceptance outside the band matters more than noise inside it.
Location, size, invalidation, and the condition that kills the idea still come first. Use the map; do not invent bands.
Futures involve substantial risk. Educational content only; this is not financial advice.
Sources
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