Oil Already Spent the Band. PPI Printed Hot on the Year.
Crude already spent daily +1SD overnight on Middle East supply risk. NQ through daily −1SD. August PPI printed +0.4% m/m and +5.4% y/y — matched the month, a touch hot on the year. CPI is still Friday.
Thursday, September 10, 2026
Crude ran the overnight book into Middle East supply risk and dragged risk assets with it. House daily expected-move for CL was already through +1SD before the New York cash open. Nasdaq spent daily −1SD. August PPI printed at 8:30 Eastern — final demand +0.4% m/m and +5.4% y/y — and equity futures stayed soft after the print. CPI is still Friday.
Morning Pulse is the day clock, not a forecast. This note is honest about the clock: at publish time PPI is already out. Overnight did not wait for Friday. Oil printed the stretch first. Equities sold with it. PPI then confirmed a pipeline print that matched the month and ran a touch hot on the year. The job into the rest of cash is to mark what is already spent, then size only what is left — not to invent a second oil chase after the field is used.
This note does not rewrite Week Ahead, September 7–11. Wednesday’s Pulse kept CPI on Friday. That still holds.
Confirmed clocks
All times Eastern. Cash open is 3:30 a.m. Hawaii.
| Time (ET) | What is confirmed | Status / desk use |
|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 10, 8:30 a.m. | BLS PPI, August 2026 — final demand +0.4% m/m, +5.4% y/y; core (less foods, energy, trade services) +0.3% m/m, +4.7% y/y. | Already printed. Pipeline / wholesale. Matched the month; a touch hot on the year. Not CPI. |
| Thu Sep 10, after the close | Oracle and Adobe earnings. | Software leftovers after cash. Do not average into the morning PPI card. |
| Fri Sep 11, 8:30 a.m. | CPI and Real Earnings. | The inflation vote. Do not spend it on a PPI leftover. |
| Sep 15–16 | FOMC.
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