Nasdaq Still Under 29,201. Asia Sold. London Gilts Made a New High.

Tuesday accepted Nasdaq below the Monday daily -1SD and crude above +1SD. Overnight did not reverse that. Asia sold the handoff. London gilts printed a fresh high. ADP slowed hiring and the tape mixed. It did not reclaim 29,201.26.

That is the sequence. Not a forecast.

Overnight

Tokyo already had JGBs at 3.00%. What they got was $90 oil and Nasdaq still under 29,201. Nikkei finished about -2.9%. Kospi about -3% to -4%.

UK 10-year ran from Tuesday's 5.22% close to about 5.28-5.29%. U.S. 10-year tagged about 4.81-4.82% overnight. Duration stayed expensive.

ES went first (overnight low near 7,618.50), then mixed back toward Tuesday after ADP. NQ stayed red versus 29,125.50 and still under 29,201.26. Crude held the $90 handle. Gold kept leaking.

Versus Tuesday settle

• ES ~7,645-7,646 vs 7,642.75. Back to Tuesday. Not a band reclaim.
• NQ ~29,067-29,080 vs 29,125.50. Still under 29,201.26.
• YM ~52,938 vs ~52,828. Firmer than NQ. Do not let YM speak for Nasdaq.
• RTY ~2,928 vs 2,924.70. Tuesday cash still through 2,935.59.
• GC ~4,326-4,330 vs 4,348. Still through 4,374.51.
• CL ~90.46 vs 90.22. Still through Tuesday's 87.78.

ADP +38,000 vs ~47,000 expected. Slowest ADP since January. Not a substitute for NQ holding 29,201 or crude failing 87.78.

Today's Expected-Move Map

Daily map only. Wednesday is not a weekly or monthly reset.

Vol VIX 16.34 VXN 21.96 GVZ 25.43 OVX 49.13. YM and RTY use VIX.

Tuesday close / daily 1SD range (expected move):

• ES 7,642.75 / 7,577.38-7,708.12 (±65.37)
• NQ 29,125.50 / 28,790.72-29,460.28 (±334.78)
• YM 52,828 / 52,376-53,280 (±452)
• RTY 2,924.70 / 2,899.69-2,949.71 (±25.01)
• GC 4,348.00 / 4,290.13-4,405.87 (±57.87)
• CL 90.22 / 87.90-92.54 (±2.32)

Overnight NQ near 29,067 sits inside today's field. 29,201.26 is Tuesday's accepted break, not today's -1SD — do not confuse the two lines. Crude near 90.46 sits inside 87.90-92.54.