Nasdaq Still Under 29,201. Asia Sold. London Gilts Made a New High.
Tuesday accepted Nasdaq below Monday daily -1SD and crude above +1SD. Overnight did not reverse that. Asia sold. London gilts printed a fresh high. ADP slowed hiring. Nasdaq is still under 29,201.26 into New York.
Tuesday accepted Nasdaq below the Monday daily -1SD and crude above +1SD. Overnight did not reverse that. Asia sold the handoff. London gilts printed a fresh high. ADP slowed hiring and the tape mixed. It did not reclaim 29,201.26.
That is the sequence. Not a forecast.
Overnight
Tokyo already had JGBs at 3.00%. What they got was $90 oil and Nasdaq still under 29,201. Nikkei finished about -2.9%. Kospi about -3% to -4%.
UK 10-year ran from Tuesday's 5.22% close to about 5.28-5.29%. U.S. 10-year tagged about 4.81-4.82% overnight. Duration stayed expensive.
ES went first (overnight low near 7,618.50), then mixed back toward Tuesday after ADP. NQ stayed red versus 29,125.50 and still under 29,201.26. Crude held the $90 handle. Gold kept leaking.
Versus Tuesday settle
- ES ~7,645-7,646 vs 7,642.75. Back to Tuesday. Not a band reclaim.
- NQ ~29,067-29,080 vs 29,125.50. Still under 29,201.26.
- YM ~52,938 vs ~52,828. Firmer than NQ. Do not let YM speak for Nasdaq.
- RTY ~2,928 vs 2,924.70. Tuesday cash still through 2,935.59.
- GC ~4,326-4,330 vs 4,348. Still through 4,374.51.
- CL ~90.46 vs 90.22. Still through Tuesday's 87.78.
ADP +38,000 vs ~47,000 expected. Slowest ADP since January. Not a substitute for NQ holding 29,201 or crude failing 87.78.
Today's Expected-Move Map
Daily map only. Wednesday is not a weekly or monthly reset.
Vol VIX 16.34 VXN 21.96 GVZ 25.43 OVX 49.13. YM and RTY use VIX.
Tuesday close / daily 1SD range (expected move):
- ES 7,642.75 / 7,577.38-7,708.12 (±65.37)
- NQ 29,125.50 / 28,790.72-29,460.28 (±334.78)
- YM 52,828 / 52,376-53,280 (±452)
- RTY 2,924.70 / 2,899.69-2,949.71 (±25.01)
- GC 4,348.00 / 4,290.13-4,405.87 (±57.87)
- CL 90.22 / 87.90-92.54 (±2.32)
Overnight NQ near 29,067 sits inside today's field. 29,201.26 is Tuesday's accepted break, not today's -1SD — do not confuse the two lines. Crude near 90.46 sits inside 87.90-92.54. The $90 handle is the middle of the new envelope, not an edge to fade.
The open
Repair is NQ reclaiming and holding 29,201.26 and crude losing 87.78. Continuation is NQ staying under while WTI holds $90 and yields stay bid. 10:00 a.m. ET still has factory orders and metro employment. Beige Book 2:00 p.m. After the close: AVGO, HPE, SNOW.
Tuesday's After the Close already mapped this line: NQ settled through Monday's daily -1SD and crude settled through daily +1SD. Overnight did not repair either one.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
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