Nasdaq Accepted Below Daily -1SD. Crude Accepted Above +1SD.
Equities closed red on the first cash session of September. Nasdaq held below the Monday daily -1SD into the close. WTI settled at a five-week high after CENTCOM struck IRGC targets at midday. Duration stayed offered. Friday's payrolls still sit on the calendar.
September's first New York cash session did not argue with the morning map. It completed it.
The Pulse opened the month under a gilt break, a U.S. 10-year already near 4.79%, and an oil shock that had Nasdaq offered. By 10:35 a.m. ET, NQ was already through the Monday daily -1SD and crude was sitting on the upper band. The rest of cash was the same mechanic running to settlement: duration stayed expensive, crude accepted above +1SD after the noon CENTCOM print, and the equity complex finished the day below Monday without a late repair.
That is the sequence. Not a forecast.
Equities closed red. The bands told you where.
- S&P 500 7,631.47 (-0.7%), below Monday and through ES -1SD 7,638.87
- Dow 52,766.88 (-0.8%), through YM -1SD 52,824
- Nasdaq-100 29,077.22 (-1.29%); NQ settle 29,125.50, 76 pts through -1SD 29,201.26
- Russell 2,920.13 (-1.2%), through RTY -1SD 2,935.59
- ES settle 7,642.75 sat a few points inside the lower band. Cash did not. Treat the split as location, not a save
- WTI $90.22 (+5.2%), Brent $94.65, well above CL +1SD 87.78
- Gold $4,348, through GC -1SD 4,374.51
- UST 10y 4.792% (high 4.798%); UK 10y high 5.250%, close 5.220%
- VIX 16.34 from 14.92. Higher. Not a crash print
ISM Manufacturing 54.6, prices paid 71.1 unchanged. JOLTS 7.271 million. Construction spending -0.5%. None of that reversed crude. Friday payrolls still sit on the calendar.
Asia
Tokyo already walked JGBs to 3.00% Tuesday. What New York hands them is WTI at $90.22, a U.S. 10-year at 4.792%, and Nasdaq still under 29,201.26. Repair is NQ/ES reclaiming 29,201.26 and 7,638.87 and holding, not a Nikkei headline bounce.
London
Gilts tagged 5.250% and finished 5.220%. If WTI is still above 87.78 at Europe's cash open, a FTSE/Euro Stoxx bounce without a yield giveback is not index repair. 5.22% on gilts is a level to respect, not a ceiling.
What this leaves for the next open
Repair is still a location, not a story. NQ has to reclaim and hold 29,201.26 before the break is failed. Crude's line from the other side is 87.78. Do not fade $90 because it looks extended without that print. Duration: 4.80% on the 10-year was the session high. Friday's Employment Situation remains the week's scheduled labor event.
Futures trading involves substantial risk. This material is educational and is not financial advice.
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