NQ Crossed the Band, Not Thursday's Median
NQ crossed its expected-move high but never reached Thursday's median. The week-low reclaim held through cash, while index alert boards stayed quiet. The jobs print, verified ranges and next risk checks.
Friday, November 6, 2026 · After the Close
Our expected move was not a ceiling for NQ today. But chasing the break still meant buying under Thursday's median. Price got above the top of our band, fell short of that median, and finished back inside the band. A bounce and a change in trend are not the same thing.
The expected move is the range the options market prices for the day. NQ's Friday band was 26,216.26–27,287.74, built from Thursday's settle at 26,752. PDM means the prior day's median: halfway between that day's high and low. For Friday, that was Thursday's median at 27,473.125. Those were separate tests. Clearing the first did not mean the next one had to trade.
Our morning prep asked NQ to hold the reclaimed week low, then clear the top of the expected move before testing PDM. Cash got the break above the band. It did not get PDM. The week-low reclaim did survive the cash session. That is progress from the overnight low, but it is not proof the larger drop has ended.
The morning event was the October jobs report, out at 3:30 AM HT / 8:30 AM ET. The BLS said nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, above the prior twelve-month average gain of 48,000. Unemployment “changed little” at 4.1 percent; its household table shows September at 4.2. Average hourly earnings rose 14 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $38.00, up 3.1 percent over twelve months.
That report was part of the day's risk. It does not tell us why each price moved. The useful check is still the same: which of our levels did price reach, and where did it finish?
What closed
Nasdaq cash rose. NQ futures bounced too. Those are different products, so keep their numbers apart.
| Cash index |
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