NQ Runs 1,353 Points Off the Daily Stamp
NQ ran 1,353.25 points off the daily stamp middle at 27,652 and kept about three quarters of it. YM and RTY broke their 2x bands. 30,178 is still the line.
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · After the Close
NQ ran 1,353.25 points off the daily stamp and kept most of it. The stamp is the body of the daily candle that made a swing low. It counts only when the next day's candle swallows it whole. Its middle is the level. NQ's stamp is the July 29 candle, with a body from 27,342 to 27,962. Its middle is 27,652. Last night NQ found its low at 27,615.75 at 10:07 p.m. ET and turned up 36.25 points under that middle. It also held above its 2x expected move low at 27,401.09. The expected move is the range the options market prices for the day. Then NQ climbed to 28,969. By 5:00 p.m. ET it sat at 28,646.75. That gives back about 24% of the run.
The news came in during the overnight climb. Results showed Democrats winning the House and the Senate. Shortly before 10:30 p.m. ET, President Trump told The New York Times he was "absolutely willing to accept those results." NQ was near 27,706 at 10:30 p.m. and about 28,163 by 1:00 a.m. The AP called the House at 1:25 a.m. ET.
Momentum is strong. YM ran past its 2x band top at 53,026.61 and its weekly band top at 53,314.27. RTY ran past its 2x band top at 2,886.60. NQ ran past its daily expected-move top at 28,758.08. The bigger line is still 30,178, the swing high from Oct. 28. A daily close over it would confirm that November's 2Down is over. A 2Down means price broke under last month's low. NQ broke October's low at 28,232.75, from our prior month levels.
Members get the alert counts, the prints at the turns, the session by the hour, this morning's prep scored, and Thursday's levels. The full tape is below.
Here's the count. In New York cash, 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, the UW imbalance board sent 17 alerts: 14 hourly, 3 Daily, 0 Weekly. A UW alert fires when price comes back to a spot where buyers or sellers left a gap. MedianReclaim added 8 tags: 5 Daily, 3 Weekly. A MedianReclaim tag fires when price trades back to the middle of a day or a week. Every count is a sent alert from imbalance-alert-router → Discord, deduped. Two repeat tags were dropped. Both boards land in the free prep room.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.44% to 25,736.51. The S&P 500 rose 1.58% to 7,688.62. The Dow rose 3.03% to 53,356.12. Crude oil fell near 8%. The VIX fell about 20%.
Scoring this morning
This morning's RTH Market Prep made four calls.
- 30,178 stays the line until a daily close over it. Right. NQ's high was 28,969, about 1,200 points under it.
- NQ over 28,662 past the first 5-minute bar gives the bounce more room. Right. The first 5-minute bar closed at 28,415.25. NQ closed a minute over 28,662 at 9:40 a.m. ET and ran 307 points more, to 28,969.
- The bounce stalls at the sellers' marks and NQ falls back under Tuesday's high at 28,443.50. Wrong. NQ went through 28,634 and 28,662 in the first 10 minutes. It traded over Tuesday's high for the rest of the day after 9:34 a.m.
- ES's test is its band top at 7,679.58. Right. ES's cash low was 7,679.75 at 9:34 a.m., a hair over the band top. Then it climbed to 7,746.25.
Score: three right, one wrong. The miss was reading the 28,634 sellers' marks as a ceiling. Momentum went straight through them.
What the tools said
Overnight, at the low: ES got a Daily UW bull at 7498 at 10:01 p.m. ET. ES made its low at 7,490 six minutes later, the same minute as NQ's low. YM got a Daily UW bull at 51599 at 9:11 p.m.
UW board in cash: 14 hourlies and 3 Dailies. The index prints:
- NQ hourly bear 28553.25 at 9:32 a.m. ET. NQ dipped to 28,405 two minutes later, then ran through the print to 28,969.
- ES Daily bear 7709.5 at 9:39. ES ran through it to 7,746.25 and finished near 7,721, over the print.
- YM Daily bear 53235 at 10:54. YM ran through it to 53,631 and finished near 53,505, over the print.
The other 14 prints were bonds, crude, copper, metals, currencies, Nikkei and Bitcoin futures.
MedianReclaim: 5 Daily tags and 3 Weekly tags. RTY's Daily and Weekly medians sat at the same price, 2842.45, and both got tagged at 11:24 a.m. ET. RTY made its cash low two minutes later at 2,839.80. Then it climbed and finished near 2,866.
How our analyst set his bias
Our analyst traded NQ overnight. He set his bias for the day from the support we found. He used the daily stamp from July 29. Its middle is 27,652. In Asia, NQ came down to the middle of the stamp. It was already under the daily expected-move low at 27,853.42 but over the 2x band low at 27,401.09. It had also moved more than a normal day's range. That range is the ATR, the average daily range.
On the 5-minute chart, a candle tagged the stamp's middle and made a bullish pin bar. A pin bar is a candle with a long tail that shows price was pushed back. He has been burned buying as soon as the next candle breaks a pin bar's high, because those candles often don't close above it. So he did it in two steps:
- First, he put his buy at the middle of the pin bar and waited. Price wicked down and filled it at 27,676.
- Second, he set an add for if price broke the pin bar's high. That filled at 27,783.
Then price turned up as the election news came in, and pushed harder after President Trump accepted the results.
The process: find the level first. Wait for price to show a turn there. Buy the pullback to the middle of the pin bar instead of chasing the break of its high, then add on the break. If price had kept falling through the stamp, the bias would have been wrong.
The session by the hour
NQ: It opened at 28,429.75 and dipped to its cash low of 28,405 at 9:34 a.m. ET. It ran through the 28,634 to 28,662 zone by 9:40, past its expected-move top at 28,758.08 by 9:43, and topped at 28,969 at 10:15. It made a lower high at 28,776.25 at 12:53 p.m. Its last close over 28,662 was at 2:21 p.m. It was near 28,565 at 4:00 p.m. and 28,646.75 at 5:00 p.m.
ES: It opened near 7,683 and held over its band top at 7,679.58 all day. It reached 7,746.25 at 1:07 p.m. and finished near 7,721.
YM topped at 53,631 at 3:35 p.m., past both its 2x and weekly band tops. RTY topped at 2,888.70 at 9:45 a.m., just past its 2x band top.
Levels for Thursday
Wednesday's full-session range, overnight included, is the new day frame from our prior key levels. PDM means the prior day's median, the halfway point of the day before.
- NQ: 30,178 swing high · 28,969 Wednesday's high (and this week's high) · 28,758.08 Wednesday's expected-move top · 28,634 to 28,662 zone · 28,292.375 Wednesday's PDM · 28,232.75 October's low · 27,615.75 Wednesday's low · 27,652 daily stamp middle (body 27,342 to 27,962)
- ES: 7,746.25 Wednesday's high · 7,679.58 Wednesday's expected-move top · 7,618.125 Wednesday's PDM · 7,558.25 October's low · 7,490 Wednesday's low
Thursday's expected-move bands come off Wednesday's settle. They will be in the morning prep.
What to do — and what kills it
The momentum read: NQ kept about three quarters of a 1,353-point run. Over the 28,634 to 28,662 zone and holding, 28,969 is the next test.
Under the zone: Wednesday's PDM at 28,292.375 and October's low at 28,232.75 sit close together. They are the first support to watch.
What kills the momentum: a daily close back under the stamp's middle at 27,652. What confirms the bigger turn: a daily close over 30,178.
One question to ask yourself: When NQ turned up near the middle of the daily stamp last night, what on your chart told you that spot mattered?
If you want the expected-move bands on your own chart, the Expected Move indicator draws them. All of our Key Levels live in one place. Or come watch them with us in the free futures prep room.
More: RTH Market Prep, Nov 4
Sources
Prices checked against two independent real-time quote feeds and one-minute futures bars from both. Where the two disagreed, we say "near." Expected-move bands from the house expected-moves publisher, matched against a second feed in this morning's prep. Alert counts from imbalance-alert-router → Discord receipts, deduped. Election facts from AP, Reuters, PBS and BBC reports.
The bear prints in cash got run over, and the overnight bull prints came minutes before the low. Look left at how NQ treated the July 29 stamp at 27,652 before you lean on it again.
Educational content only. Not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Verify all levels on your own feed before sizing.
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