NQ Bounces. 30,178 Still Rules

Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Last night NQ fell hard, then bounced back fast. That bounce is the trap to think about today. Our expected move for NQ runs from 27,853.42 to 28,758.08. The expected move is the range the options market is pricing for a set time. Overnight NQ dropped to 27,615.75, under the bottom of that range and under this week's low at 28,038.25. Then it climbed back to about 28,579. ES did the same. It fell to 7,490 and now sits near 7,685, just over the top of its band at 7,679.58.

A big bounce feels like a turn. Our read says wait. Our frame for NQ is drop, base, drop. Price drops, goes sideways for a while (the base), then drops again. Tuesday was the base. Last night was the next drop. The push lower likely isn't over until NQ closes a day above the higher swing high at 30,178. That was the Oct. 28 high, and it is still far overhead. November is also a 2Down on NQ. A 2Down means price broke under last month's low. NQ broke October's low at 28,232.75.

From Tuesday's 4:00 p.m. ET close to 7:00 a.m. ET, the UW board sent 32 prints: 23 hourlies, 6 Daily, 3 Weekly. A UW print is an imbalance alert. It fires when price comes back to a level where buyers or sellers left a gap. MedianReclaim sent 56 median tags: 44 Daily and 12 Weekly. A median tag fires when price trades back to the middle of a day or week. Every count comes from imbalance-alert-router → Discord.

After the bell and Asia: the next drop

What printed on our board. ES got a Daily and a Weekly UW bull at 7541 at 8:05 p.m. ET. ES got a Daily UW bull at 7498 at 10:01 p.m. YM got a Daily UW bull at 51599 at 9:11 p.m.

What price did. NQ and ES both broke Tuesday's low, last week's low and this week's low. NQ made its low at 27,615.75 at 10:07 p.m. ES made its low at 7,490 at 10:07 p.m., six minutes after the 7498 print.

Where the low held. NQ found its low at the daily stamp. The stamp is the body of the daily candle that made a swing low. It counts only when the next day's candle swallows it whole. Its middle is the level. NQ's stamp is the July 29 candle, with a body from 27,342 to 27,962. Its middle is 27,652. That candle's low started the run to the 30,178 swing high. Last night NQ turned up 36.25 points under the stamp's middle. It also stayed above the 2x expected move low at 27,401.09 and the weekly band low at 27,407.81.

The news behind the bounce. Results last night showed Democrats winning the House and the Senate. Shortly before 10:30 p.m. ET, President Trump told The New York Times he was "absolutely willing to accept those results." NQ was near 27,706 at 10:30 p.m. It climbed to about 28,163 by 1:00 a.m. as the Senate and then the House were called for Democrats. The AP called the House at 1:25 a.m. ET.

What we're watching because of it. A low that gets taken and won back can turn into a failed breakdown. It takes more than one night to prove it.

London: the bounce

What printed on our board. NQ got hourly UW bears at 28305.75 at 3:06 a.m. and at 28634 at 5:34 a.m. ES got an hourly UW bear at 7652.25 at 5:03 a.m. MedianReclaim tagged ES's Daily median at 7610.25 and NQ's at 28377.625 a little after 3:00 a.m.

What price did. NQ climbed back over Tuesday's high. It topped at 28,662 at 5:34 a.m., the same minute as the 28634 bear print. ES ran to 7,686.25.

What we're watching because of it. Sellers left marks right where the bounce topped. That is where a bounce inside a drop gets tested.

Overnight into New York: a bounce under the swing high

NQ sits over Tuesday's high and inside its daily expected move. ES sits just over the top of its daily band. Both are still far under last week's highs. NQ's last week high is the 30,178 swing high.

Overnight sweep

As of 6:45 a.m. ET. Tuesday's levels are the regular session. Last week's include the overnight session.

ES ran Tuesday's high at 7,623.75 by 62.5 points and is holding over it. It also took out Tuesday's low at 7,576.50 (by 86.5 points) and last week's low at 7,558.25 (by 68.25 points) and this week's low at 7,546 (by 56 points) and got back above both. Overnight it traded from 89.75 points over to 106.5 points under Tuesday's 4:00 close (+1.18% / -1.40%). It's 89 points over that close now at 7,685.50 (+1.17%). A swept and reclaimed low can become a failed breakdown. It has to hold first. At the open: Hold 7,576.50 and the move back toward 7,686.25 is in play. Lose 7,490 and the sweep turns into acceptance.

NQ ran Tuesday's high at 28,443.50 by 218.5 points and is holding over it. It also took out Tuesday's low at 28,215.75 (by 600 points) and last week's low at 28,232.75 (by 617 points) and this week's low at 28,038.25 (by 422.5 points) and got back above both. Overnight it traded from 361.25 points over to 685 points under Tuesday's 4:00 close (+1.28% / -2.42%). It's 278 points over that close now at 28,578.75 (+0.98%). A swept and reclaimed low can become a failed breakdown. It has to hold first. At the open: Hold 28,215.75 and the move back toward 28,662 is in play. Lose 27,615.75 and the sweep turns into acceptance.

YM ran Tuesday's high at 52,031 by 697 points and is holding over it. It also took out Tuesday's low at 51,711 (by 295 points) and last week's low at 51,701 (by 285 points) and got back above both. And it ran this week's high at 52,581 by 147 points and is holding over it. And it took out this week's low at 51,631 by 215 points and got back above it. At the extreme it was 834 points over the close (+1.61%), and it's 823 over now at 52,717 (+1.59%). Back under 52,031 turns it into a failed breakout.

RTY ran Tuesday's high at 2,847.00 by 22.8 points and is holding over it. It also traded back over Tuesday's low at 2,819.80 by 50 points and is holding over it. And it ran this week's high at 2,858.40 by 11.4 points and is holding over it. And it took out this week's low at 2,805.80 by 9.6 points and got back above it. At the extreme it was 44.8 points over the close (+1.59%), and it's 40.7 over now at 2,865.70 (+1.44%). Back under 2,847.00 turns it into a failed breakout.

Crude ran Tuesday's high at 96.96 by 0.19 and gave it back. At the extreme it was 1.49 under the settle (-1.55%), and it's 0.96 under now at 95.13 (-1.00%).

Gold didn't cross-check this morning, so it is left out.

New York setup: a bounce inside a drop

A held level by itself says little about who is in charge. A bounce inside a drop is still part of the drop until a higher-timeframe line breaks. For NQ, that line is 30,178 on a daily close. Price is about 1,600 points under it.

So today's job is simple. Watch the bounce at the sellers' marks. NQ's hourly bear at 28634 and the overnight high at 28,662 are the first test. ES's band top at 7,679.58 and the overnight high at 7,686.25 are its test. If the bounce stalls there and NQ falls back under Tuesday's high at 28,443.50, the drop read is back in charge. If NQ holds over 28,662 past the first 5-minute bar, the bounce has more room. The drop read stays in place until 30,178 breaks on a daily close.

PDM means the prior day's median, the halfway point of the day before. Our MedianReclaim tags the Daily median when price comes back to it. NQ's Daily tag this morning was at 28377.625, and ES's was at 7610.25.

Let the first 5-minute bar finish. The cash open is 9:30 a.m. ET, which is 4:30 a.m. HT. ADP jobs print at 8:15 a.m. ET. The ISM services report is at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the crude inventory report is at 10:30 a.m. ET. Those can push price into our levels fast.

What the tools are saying

UW board: 23 hourlies, 6 Daily, 3 Weekly. Index prints: ES bear 7607.5 (hourly), ES bull 7541 (Daily and Weekly), YM bull 51599 (Daily), ES bull 7498 (Daily), NQ bear 28305.75 (hourly), YM bear 52371 (hourly), ES bear 7652.25 (hourly), RTY bear 2864.7 (hourly), NQ bear 28634 (hourly).

MedianReclaim: 44 Daily tags and 12 Weekly tags. The index tags this morning were ES's Daily median at 7610.25, NQ's at 28377.625, and YM's Weekly median at 52423.

Daily Expected-Move Map

Verified from the house expected-moves publisher off the 2026-11-03 close. A settle is the official closing price. The settles and volatility closes match a second quote feed, and the bands recompute to the cent from that feed. The 2x band is twice the move. It is the outer frame for a day that runs far. Publisher alerts: 2 (gold over its weekly band, crude under its weekly band).

Vol (Tuesday close): VIX 20.83 · VXN 30.53 · GVZ 25.82 · OVX 61.69.

Weekly expected move (anchored Friday): ES 7,409.23 – 7,818.77 (±204.77) · NQ 27,407.81 – 29,660.19 (±1,126.19).

Read it like this. NQ's overnight low at 27,615.75 went under the daily band but stayed over the weekly band low at 27,407.81. ES and YM start the day over their daily band tops. A day that opens over the band has used up its range early.

Levels

All of our Key Levels live in one place.

• NQ: 30,178 swing high (Oct. 28, last week's high) · 28,891.25 this week's high · 28,758.08 expected-move high · 28,662 overnight high · 28,443.50 Tuesday's high · 28,232.75 October's low · 28,215.75 Tuesday's low · 28,038.25 this week's low before last night · 27,853.42 expected-move low · 27,615.75 overnight low · 27,407.81 weekly band low
• ES: 7,819.50 last week's high · 7,693.75 this week's high · 7,686.25 overnight high · 7,679.58 expected-move high · 7,623.75 Tuesday's high · 7,576.50 Tuesday's low · 7,558.25 last week's low · 7,513.92 expected-move low · 7,490 overnight low

Tuesday's high and low, last week's high and low and October's low come from our prior key levels tool. Last week's range, high to low, is a separate frame from the Weekly Dealing Range, which is built from Monday's high, low, median and open.

What we're doing

NQ: a bounce inside a drop. The test is 28,634 to 28,662. Back under 28,443.50 after a stall there, Tuesday's low at 28,215.75 and the overnight low at 27,615.75 come back into view. Over 28,662 and holding, this week's high at 28,891.25 is next.

ES: over its band top. 7,679.58 to 7,686.25 is the test. Back under Tuesday's high at 7,623.75, the bounce has failed.

Where we're wrong. A daily close over 30,178 on NQ ends the drop-base-drop read. Nothing short of that changes the bigger picture. Inside the day, NQ holding over 28,891.25 would tell us the bounce is stronger than we think.

One question for you. If NQ stalls at 28,634 this morning, what will you need to see before you trust it?

Know the range before the bell

A fast bounce inside a drop, with the swing high at 30,178 far overhead. The PonoTrading Expected Move indicator draws the daily, weekly and monthly bands on your chart. The alerts we counted here land in the free PonoTrading Discord prep room.

Sources

• imbalance-alert-router → Discord: FirstImbalance UW taps (ids 2748–2779, 32 sent) and MedianReclaim tags (ids 1104–1159, 56 sent), Tuesday 4:00 p.m. ET close to 7:00 a.m. ET
• House expected-moves publisher: dry-run off the 2026-11-03 close, settles and volatility closes matched against a second quote feed
• Tuesday's levels, last week's levels, October's low and the overnight highs and lows: two price feeds of front-month futures bars
• Economic calendar: two public calendars agree on ADP 8:15, ISM services 10:00 and crude inventories 10:30 a.m. ET

An alert points at a spot on the chart. Before you act on it, look left and make sure the bars tell the same story.

---

Educational content only. Not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Verify all levels on your own feed before sizing.