Rates Peaked, Russell Leaked
The board sent 145 UW taps and 151 MedianReclaim tags. S&P +1.2% on the week, Russell −0.9%, and the 10-year gave back its 24-year high to close at 5.24%.
Weekend Review | October 5–9, 2026
From Sunday's Globex open to Friday's close, PonoTrading's imbalance board sent 145 UW taps to Discord: 136 hourly, 7 Daily and 2 Weekly. The MedianReclaim tool sent 151 Daily/Weekly median tags on top of that. The best receipt of the week was a Daily, and it was on the Russell. RTY's Daily bear at 2884.2 printed at 7:39 a.m. ET Tuesday. After the open, small-cap futures never got back over it, and they didn't settle above it again all week. Two days later RTY traded 2,778.60, about 105 points under the level, and broke its weekly expected-move low on the way.
That's the week. Up top, the S&P 500 set a record close Tuesday and finished Friday at 7,811.54, up 1.2% on the week. The Dow gained 0.9% to 51,654.95 and the Nasdaq 0.6% to 27,366.17. The Russell 2000 went the other way, down 0.9% to 2,806.98, its fifth straight down week. In the middle of it all, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002 on Wednesday, near 5.35% to 5.36%, then a strong 10-year auction and a strong 30-year auction pulled it back. It closed Friday at 5.24%, down about 4 basis points on the week. Rates peaked. The Russell leaked.
What the tools said this week
All counts come from imbalance-alert-router → Discord receipts: FirstImbalance UW taps from imbalance_uw_events and MedianReclaim tags from median_reclaim_events, deduplicated, Sunday 6 p.m. ET to Friday 5 p.m. ET. Every one has a Discord message id behind it.
UW taps by session (deduplicated):
| Session | Hourly | Daily | Weekly | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 33 | 0 | 0 | 33 |
| Tuesday | 32 | 1 | 0 | 33 |
| Wednesday | 23 | 2 | 0 | 25 |
| Thursday
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