Services Monday. Minutes Wednesday. CPI Still Ahead.

October 5–9, 2026

The labor bookend already printed. Friday’s After the Close — Soft NFP. Soft Wage. Bookend Soft. Yields Bounced. — is live. Soft Claims 197k on Thursday and Soft NFP +29,000 on Friday were wire, not Spotter. Friday cash went green — S&P 7,722.72 (+0.7%), Dow 51,176.96 (+0.5%), Nasdaq 27,190.86 (+1.2%), Russell 2,832.90 (+0.9%) — and the week still finished with the S&P −0.3% and the Dow −1.3%. The 10-year dipped under 5.17% and the AP path finished at 5.28%. Spotter’s cash reaction was the other sentence: into-open bull 5.177, then cash bear 5.243, with gold 4184.2, silver 60.95, and the euro 1.13. No ES, NQ, Dow, or crude cash SENT on Friday. No expected-move band. Path still sits at 3.75%–4.00% after the September 16 hike.

This week is not a second FOMC and it is not CPI week. CPI is on the BLS calendar for Wednesday, October 14. PPI is October 15. The decision meeting is October 27–28. Columbus Day is October 12, after this cash week. What this week actually has is Monday’s ISM Services, Tuesday’s trade report, Wednesday’s September FOMC minutes, Thursday’s claims window and a very early Waller speech, and a coupon auction run (3-year, 10-year, 30-year) on the Treasury tentative schedule. Friday has no Tier-1 BLS print. The expensive mistake is inventing a new path off Friday’s green close when the real job is to arm the clocks that are actually on the card and refuse the chase if you miss them.

Weekend Review left the same rule on the desk: wait for the location. Set the alert. Live off the charts. Miss = no chase. This note does not invent new levels.

The Week's Confirmed Decision Points

All times Eastern. Hawaii is six hours behind while the mainland is