Soft Claims Held. Oil Maps Split. Week Still Through.

Friday, September 25, 2026

Thursday’s cash answer is on the tape — soft Claims at 197k versus 201k, new-home sales hot at 684k, the 10-year at 5.20%, Brent settling $100.22 after Spotter’s crude ladder printed higher through the session, and cash finishing flat-to-soft under that yield and oil pressure — and the new daily map already shows overnight sitting inside Thursday’s expected-move band on the equity complex while NQ is still through the weekly expected-move high, and crude sits near the lower half of its daily band with the weekly map soft and the quarterly map still loud. Path still inherits the September 16 hike (3.75%–4.00%, 12–0). Today’s job is not a second rate vote. Advance Durable Goods already printed flat on the headline with firm core capex — what is left is final Michigan, the Board speakers still on the card, and whether cash accepts overnight geography on the last cash day of the week.

Into this Hawaii window the new daily map — anchored to Thursday’s settle — shows ES, NQ, YM, RTY, and gold inside the daily expected move. The weekly map — still anchored to Friday’s prior week close — still shows NQ through the weekly expected-move high. Crude is inside the daily expected move near the lower half after Thursday’s ladder higher into cash — with weekly soft and quarterly still loud on the publisher board. Those stay separate sentences. Census Advance Durable Goods printed at 8:30 — orders $338.6B, −0.0%; ex-transportation +0.3%; nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft +1.6%. Final Michigan ~10:00 is still pending (official SCA still shows September prelim 47.8). Speakers still on the card after the open. Cash still has to vote on overnight geography into the week’s last sentiment print after Thursday’s Claims and housing