Off the Record Highs, Waiting on the Minutes

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records Tuesday. By the time London was done, futures had given a good piece of it back — ES down to 7,836.25, NQ down to 31,217.25, and small caps under the bottom of today's expected move. Oil went the other way. Brent is back above $101 after more Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, and WTI is trading around $90. The 10-year is back above 5.30%. Gold is down about $55 from its overnight high. Today's calendar is short but it's loaded: EIA crude inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET, a $39 billion 10-year auction at 1:00, and the minutes from the September Fed meeting at 2:00.

Here's how we got here, session by session, and what we're doing about it.

Asia: Tokyo takes profits at 70,000

What price did. The Nikkei fell 0.92% to 70,035.71, its first down day in three, as traders took profits in AI and chip names. It held 70,000 at the close, barely. The Hang Seng lost 0.62% to 24,130.50. Korea's Kospi fell about 0.9%. Mainland China was still closed for the holiday. The yen stayed weak, with the dollar above 158. US index futures were quiet in Asia — ES traded a 9.5-point box, 7,875 to 7,884.50. Crude was the mover, running up to 90.61.

What printed on our board. All hourly, nothing on the index futures. 30-year bond futures (ZB) printed bullish 102.09375, silver bullish 61.4, Nikkei futures bullish 70405, and copper bullish 6.6345.

What we're watching because of it. Not much from Asia itself. Index futures didn't move, and none of the Asia prints were Dailies. The tell was crude making a new high while stocks sat still.

London: Europe sells, oil and yields climb

What price did. Europe opened lower