Big Caps Ride the Wave, Small Caps Miss the Set

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

The S&P 500 closed at a record — 7,818.93, up 0.6% — topping its August high. The Nasdaq added 0.4% to 27,599.79, a second straight record. Small caps didn't come along: the Russell 2000 fell 0.6% to 2,830.30, and that drop started right where our one Daily level printed overnight. The Dow gained 0.5% to 51,521.28. The 10-year eased to 5.28% from 5.31%. Oil made a round trip — Brent traded under $100 in the morning and settled $100.58 (+0.3%); WTI settled $89.44, up a penny.

The data didn't move the needle. The August trade deficit came in at $105.6 billion, wider than the roughly $102 billion the street expected, with imports at a record $420.8 billion. New York Fed President Williams said he sees no urgency after September's hike. Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman talked bank supervision, not rates. The $58 billion 3-year auction cleared at 4.932%, a hair through the when-issued, with a 2.62 bid-to-cover. No drama. Constellation Energy jumped 12.2% on a long-term power deal with Google, Lamb Weston rallied 7.5% on a beat, and that was enough for the big names.

The tape, session by session

Asia. Tokyo carried the bid — the Nikkei closed up 1.05% at 70,683.98, its first close above 70,000 since early July. Hong Kong added about 1%; Korea lost 0.9%. On our board, Asia was all hourly: crude bullish 89.49, gold bullish 4164.6, copper bullish 6.6435.

London. Europe opened higher even with German factory orders down 10.6%. The dollar index printed an hourly bid at 102.187, the euro flipped from bullish 1.1243 to bearish 1.1249, and 30-year bond futures printed supply twice (102.15625, 102.65625).

Overnight into New York. ES and NQ pushed through Monday's highs (7,847.50 / 31,371). Then the one Daily