Futures Raise the Roof, Crude Hits the Floor

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Index futures pushed through Monday's high overnight — ES up to 7,864, NQ to 31,535.75 — while crude went the other way and ran straight into the bottom of its daily expected move at 87.15. That's the whole overnight in two lines. Stocks want more after Monday's Nasdaq record. Oil has already traveled about a full day's range from Monday's high. The 10-year is sitting near 5.30%, a touch under Monday's ~5.35% high. The US calendar opens with the August trade balance at 8:30 a.m. ET, New York Fed President Williams at 9:05, and a $58 billion 3-year note auction at 1:00 p.m.

Here's how we got here, session by session, and what we're doing about it.

Asia: Tokyo takes back 70,000

What price did. The Nikkei closed up 1.05% at 70,683.98 — its first close above 70,000 since early July, led by AI and chip names. The Hang Seng added about 1% to 24,280.56. Korea's Kospi lost 0.9% with SK Hynix down 3.7%. Mainland China was closed for the holiday. The yen stayed weak near 158.15 per dollar, and Japan's 10-year yield hit 3.115%, matching its highest since 1996.

What printed on our board. Spotter's Asia SENT was all hourly: crude bullish 89.49, gold bullish 4164.6, copper bullish 6.6435, and Micro Bitcoin two-sided (bullish 85720, then bearish 86005). No ES or NQ prints.

What we're watching because of it. Gold's Asia bid at 4164.6 sits right on top of the resting Daily level at 4163.8. That pair is the floor in gold if it comes back. Crude's 89.49 bid is now overhead — price left it behind.

London: Europe follows Wall Street, euro stays heavy

What price did. The FTSE 100 traded up 0.8% to 10,576.64 early, the DAX up 0.8%, the CAC