Nasdaq Sets a Record While the 10-Year Pushes 5.31%

Monday, October 5, 2026

The Nasdaq closed at a record — 27,477.31, up 1.1% — with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.31%, near its highest since 2002. That is the whole day in one line: stocks are not listening to bonds yet. The S&P 500 finished at 7,773.95 (+0.7%), within 0.3% of its summer high. The Dow added 0.2% to 51,267.90. The Russell 2000 gained 0.5% to 2,847.14. Oil went the other way — Brent settled $100.32 (−1.9%) and WTI $89.43 (−1.8%).

Here is why it matters. ISM Services came in at 54.9 versus 55.4 in August and a street number around 55.0 — a small miss on the headline. The part the bond market cared about was prices paid: 74.0, the highest since July 2022. Services cooled; prices didn't. The 10-year almost got to 5.35% during the day before settling at 5.31%, up from 5.28% Friday. Oil dropping almost 2% on the G7 stock release and more Middle East exports is the one thing that kept yields from running harder. And two buyouts gave the tape a bid — PTC jumped more than 30% on Schneider Electric's roughly $22.6 billion cash offer, and RXO rallied on C.H. Robinson's deal.

Score the morning call honestly. This morning's RTH Market Prep leaned dollar-soft into the open with DXY 102.255 as the line. That lean didn't get paid. Spotter never printed a cash DXY tap, so we can't tell you the line broke on our board — but sterling traded from the into-open 1.3223 down to a first-hour tap at 1.3193, and Reuters had the dollar index up about 0.25% midday with the euro at a 17-month low on France fiscal worries. That's what an invalidation is for. You had the line; you didn't need to