Bonds Off, Lids On

Monday, October 12, 2026

Our board sent four sell levels on the index futures overnight, and all four marked a high. ES, the Dow and the Russell each tagged an hourly bear, stalled right there, and sold off into the New York morning. The one buy level, an NQ hourly bull, didn't hold. All night the imbalance board sent 24 prints: 24 hourlies, 0 Dailies, 0 Weeklies, and MedianReclaim added 11 Daily median tags. Every count is a Discord alert from imbalance-alert-router.

It's Columbus Day. The bond market is closed. Stocks and CME futures are open. So ES and NQ trade today with no cash Treasury tape behind them. Japan is shut too. That's a thin tape, and thin tapes run stops.

Crude had the wildest night. It opened under Friday's high, dropped to 89.61 on the weekend's Russia-Ukraine energy-truce talk, then ripped to 93.31 by 7:31 a.m. ET. That's a $3.70 range before New York, about 85% of an average day (computed).

Here's what the board printed, session by session, and what we're doing about it.

Asia: one ES sell level, crude's high marked early

What printed on our board. Fifteen UW prints in Asia, all hourly. The first index print came at 11:48 p.m. ET: ES hourly bear 7885 (zone 7883–7885), touched at 7885. ES pushed two points through it to 7,887 at 12:48 a.m., and that was the high of the night. Crude got its own sell level early. The CL hourly bear 92.56 printed at 6:21 p.m. at 92.62, and 92.62 was crude's Asia high. The rest was rates, currencies and metals: the 10-year yield, the dollar index, the pound, euro, yen, silver, copper and Nikkei futures. MedianReclaim tagged two crude Daily medians, 91.09 and the prior low-median at 90.65, as crude slid.

What price did. Asia was