Futures Hold Higher Value Into JOLTS While Crude Tests Its Lower Daily Band
PonoTrading Market Pulse for August 4, 2026: NQ and YM carry higher value into JOLTS, crude tests its lower daily expected-move band, and New York has to prove acceptance.
The market is carrying Monday's strength into Tuesday's open. That is the headline.
The tradeable question is narrower: can New York accept the higher value after the 10:00 a.m. ET JOLTS release, or will the first cash-session rotation expose a move that has already done most of its work overnight?
What You Need to Know
- NQ is close to daily +1SD, while YM is already above its own upper band.
- Crude is close to daily -1SD, preserving an inflation-relief tailwind only while it stays contained.
- VIX closed Monday near 15.77, a contained volatility read that does not remove event risk around JOLTS.
- The next decision point is the 10:00 a.m. ET JOLTS response, not the first green opening print.
Shortly before 8:45 a.m. ET, ES traded near 7,655.00, NQ near 29,220.75, YM near 54,012, and RTY near 3,004.50. All four were higher than Monday's regular-session futures close. NQ and YM were doing most of the work. Crude was moving the other way, near 77.93 after Monday's 80.17 close, while gold held firm near 4,135.80.
That is a constructive cross-asset setup, but it is not a blank check for late entries. YM is already above its daily +1SD zone, NQ is close to its own upper band, and crude is pressing the lower edge of its daily field. Those are decision locations, not automatic continuation signals.
Prior Session and Overnight Markets
| Market | Monday RTH Close | Pre-Open | Change | PonoTrading Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 7,628.75 | 7,655.00 | +0.34% | Higher value, still inside daily +1SD. |
| NQ | 28,884.75 | 29,220.75 | +1.16% | Leadership is strong and close to the upper daily band. |
| YM | 53,390 | 54,012 | +1.17% | Already beyond daily +1SD; acceptance
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