Flat Headline PPI Leaves Futures Trapped Inside the First Release Range
Headline PPI was unchanged, but firm services and a two-way futures sweep left NQ 29,820-29,890.50 and ES 7,778-7,790.25 as the real decision levels.
Thursday, August 13, 2026
Headline producer inflation did not rise in July. If that sounds like an automatic green light for risk, the first 15 minutes already showed the problem: NQ swept roughly 70 points in both directions and finished near where the release began.
The number was calmer than the internals.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July. Final demand goods fell 0.7%, led by a 3.1% drop in energy and a 5.7% decline in gasoline. But final demand services rose 0.2%, construction prices jumped 2.2%, and final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.4%.
That split is why the market reaction matters more than a one-word inflation label. Cheaper energy pulled down the headline while underlying service pressure remained firm. Futures initially pushed higher, reversed, and then stabilized without establishing clean acceptance outside the release range.
Today's edge is not predicting what “zero PPI” should mean. It is identifying which side of the 8:30 range can actually hold value after the cash open.
What You Need to Know: Red-Folder Results
| 8:30 a.m. ET release | Actual | Prior | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPI final demand m/m | 0.0% | -0.1% revised | Flat headline; goods weakness offset services and construction |
| PPI final demand y/y | 4.7% | 5.5% | Annual producer inflation cooled but remains elevated |
| PPI less food, energy, and trade m/m | 0.4% | 0.1% | Underlying service pressure remained firm |
| PPI less food, energy, and trade y/y | 4.7% | 5.1% | Annual core measure eased |
| Initial jobless claims | 209,000 | 200,000 revised | Up 9,000; four-week average unchanged at 199,000 |
| Continuing claims | 1,777,000 | 1,799,000 revised | Down 22,000;
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