Long Bond Holds, Chips Fold
The 30-year sold at 5.618%, the highest since 2000, with a 2.54 bid-to-cover, and the 10-year fell back to about 5.23%. Chips sank on an OpenAI revenue report: Nasdaq 27,193.34 (−1.3%), S&P 7,765.36 (−0.5%), Dow +0.1%, Russell flat. WTI settled $91.49 after Trump ruled out Iran strikes before the midterms. Morning call scored, Friday levels, Asia/London handoff.
Thursday, October 8, 2026
The long bond held. The chips folded. Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 5.618%, the highest 30-year auction yield since 2000, and buyers showed up with a 2.54 bid-to-cover. The 10-year yield ran from 5.28% to 5.35% early, then fell all the way back to about 5.23%. Stocks split. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,765.36, its second straight loss since the record. The Nasdaq lost 1.3% to 27,193.34 as chip stocks sank on a Financial Times report that OpenAI's annualized revenue was about $20 billion less than it had signaled. The Dow edged up 0.1% to 51,231.64, and the Russell 2000 finished flat at 2,794.13.
Crude lit the fuse again. Reports that Washington was getting ready for new strikes on Iran, more tanker attacks, and Hurricane Isaias closing Gulf of Mexico wells sent WTI futures to 93.20. Then at 12:17 p.m. ET, President Trump posted that the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms. Crude dropped more than $2 in five minutes. WTI still settled at $91.49, up $3.21, and Brent settled at $104.28, up 4.1%.
Here's the day session by session, how this morning's call did, and the plan for Friday.
The tape, session by session
Asia. Wednesday's yield scare carried into Tokyo. The Nikkei fell 1.42% to 69,042.11 and closed on its low. Korea's Kospi lost 2.62% and the Hang Seng about 1.4%. US index futures drifted lower in an orderly way. ES traded 7,858.25 down to 7,839.50. Crude climbed all session from 88.77 to 90.43. Our board printed mostly hourlies, plus one Daily, copper bearish 6.723. Late in Asia, 10-year yield futures printed an hourly bear at 5.282 and 30-year bond futures an hourly bull at 101.59375.
London. Europe sold and crude ran. Brent rose toward $104,
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