Long Bond, Short Fuse
Crude ran from $88.28 to 92.84 overnight, through the top of its expected move and onto the 2× band, on Iran strike reports and Hurricane Isaias shut-ins. ES is testing its 7810.25 Daily, RTY is under its daily and weekly expected-move lows. Claims 8:30, $22B 30-year auction 1:00.
Thursday, October 8, 2026
Crude lit the fuse overnight. WTI futures ran from Wednesday's $88.28 settle to 92.84, past the top of today's expected move and a few cents over the 2× band. Brent is back around $104. Reports said the Pentagon was told to prepare for possible new strikes on Iran, a tanker was hit near Qatar, and Hurricane Isaias has about a quarter of Gulf of Mexico oil production shut in. Stocks went the other way. ES got down to 7,802.75 and is testing its Daily zone. Small caps are under their daily and weekly expected-move lows. The 10-year is back up near 5.32%, and Fed Governor Waller said this morning that more hikes are likely. The long bond goes on the block at 1:00 p.m. ET with a $22 billion 30-year auction.
Here's how we got here, session by session, and what we're doing about it.
Asia: Tokyo closes on the low
What price did. Asia picked up Wednesday's yield scare and ran with it. The Nikkei fell 1.42% to 69,042.11, down 993.60, and closed right on its low of the day. TOPIX lost 1.51%. Korea's Kospi dropped 2.62% to 6,625.93, its third straight loss. The Hang Seng fell about 1.4% to 23,796.84. US index futures were heavy but orderly. ES traded 7,858.25 down to 7,839.50, about 19 points. Crude was the mover again. It bottomed at 88.77 early, then climbed all session to 90.43 by the London handoff.
What printed on our board. Mostly hourlies. Dow futures printed an hourly bear at 51465 early, then an hourly bull at 51314 late. The dollar index printed bearish 102.26 and the euro bullish 1.1229. Nikkei futures printed bullish 69670. Silver printed bullish 60.15. Late in Asia, 10-year yield futures printed an hourly bear at 5.282 and 30-year bond
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