The Fed Retest

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · After the Close

This morning's prep had NQ over Tuesday's high at 29,881.25 into the Fed. It said if NQ went back under 29,881.25, that was a failed breakout and the overnight low at 29,783.75 came next. Both happened inside 20 minutes. NQ's first 5-minute bar held, with a low of 29,888.50. It slipped under 29,881.25 at 9:41 a.m. ET, broke the overnight low at 9:48 a.m. and hit 29,767.25 at 9:49 a.m. That was the low of the day. It was back over the overnight low the same minute.

Then the Fed. The statement hit at 2:00 p.m. ET and NQ spiked to 29,918.25 inside the minute, then gave it all back. At 2:16 p.m. it made 29,785.75, 2 points over the overnight low. The press conference started at 2:30 p.m. and NQ dipped again, to 29,797 at 2:33 p.m. That second low held too. That's the Fed retest: twice the decision pushed NQ back to the morning's line, and twice the line held.

The next 10 minutes ran 212 points. NQ was back over 29,881.25 by the close of the 2:33 p.m. minute and over 30,000 at 2:43 p.m., topping at 30,009. ES made its cash high at 7,794.25 at 2:37 p.m. Neither index got near the top of its daily expected move, NQ at 30,200.70 and ES at 7,829.40.

NQ's hourly bear UW level at 29955.25, the first line in this morning's call, kept the lid on until the last hour. NQ's first hourly close over it was the 4:00 p.m. bar. It finished just under 30,000.

The morning's downside lines worked, on NQ and on ES. The upside targets, last week's highs, didn't print until after the bell.

Members get the Fed window by the minute, every level checked, the scoring and Thursday's levels.