Three Reasons, One Ceiling

Monday, October 26, 2026 · After the Close

NQ's high of the day was 29,572 at 11:02 a.m. ET. Last week's median was 29,550, the midpoint between the prior-week high at 30,113 and low at 28,987. NQ traded up to 22 points through it and couldn't hold above it. No hourly bar closed over 29,550. By 12:48 p.m. NQ was down at 29,397.

Three things lined up at that spot:

1. The daily range was spent. Monday's low was 29,024.25 at 4:11 a.m. The high made the range 547.75 points. The 14-day average true range going in was 536 to 557 points, depending on how you smooth it. That's about 100%.
2. A big round number. NQ reached 29,500 at 10:49 a.m., spent about two hours over it without building on it, and finished under it.
3. The prior-week median. Tagged at 11:02 a.m. and again at 1:20 p.m. Neither hour closed above it.

The founder put it plainly: "That's not to say it won't break through, but for today's session we reached our hundred percent daily ATR, we found resistance at a big level, the 29,500 area, and we tagged the prior week median. All three of those are strong reasons to consider getting out of a long, potentially taking a short or sitting on your hands. Definitely not framing long trade ideas from way up there."

That's a process, not a call. Stacked reasons at one level are a cue to check your plan. It may still break.

NQ 1-hour, Oct 26. Orange line: prior-week median, 29,550. The high wicked through it; no hourly candle closed above it.

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