NQ Closed Above the Expected Move
NQ never came back to its PDM, broke Friday's high and closed above the top of its expected move while Nvidia fell. ES touched its band top and slipped back. Scorecard, alert board, Tuesday's PDM and the CPI plan.
Monday, November 9, 2026 · After the Close
If you waited all day for NQ to come back to its PDM, you are still waiting. Our morning prep had NQ sitting right on that line at 27,206.75. NQ opened above it and never came back. Then it ran through the top of our expected move and closed above it.
The expected move is the range the options market prices for a set time. Today's NQ band ran from 26,249.88 to 27,920.62. It was measured from Friday's close, so it covered the weekend too. PDM means the prior day's median. It is the midpoint of Friday's regular session: (27,425 + 26,988.50) ÷ 2 = 27,206.75.
NQ's low came one minute after the open, at 27,316.25. That was 109.50 points above the PDM. NQ broke Friday's high at 27,425 at 4:33 AM HT / 9:33 AM ET. Ten minutes later it took back the election-night low at 27,615.75. After that, it never traded back under that line. It crossed the top of the band at 5:51 AM HT / 10:51 AM ET. Its high was 28,129.25 at 10:28 AM HT / 3:28 PM ET. The last cash minute closed near 28,004.
The news was loud. Nvidia fell about 4% after its board opened a probe tied to its CEO. Oil fell. The S&P 500 rose about 2.3% and the Nasdaq Composite about 2.7%. Big news can carry price past a priced range. The band tells you what a normal day looks like. It does not stop a strong one.
Members get the scorecard against this morning's prep, what our alert board sent, how ES touched the top of its band and slipped back, Tuesday's PDM and the plan into CPI.
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