Hot CPI: NQ Found Support in Discount Under Its PDM
October CPI came in hotter than expected. NQ dealt into discount under its PDM, broke the low of its expected move, found support there, then closed back over the PDM. ES took the same path. Scorecard, alert board, Wednesday's PDM and the plan into PPI.
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · After the Close
NQ dealt under its PDM today, into discount, broke the low of its expected move, found support there, and still closed back over the PDM. Our morning prep had one line for CPI day: the PDM at 27,722.75. NQ spent about three hours of the cash session under it. Then it came back. The last cash minute closed near 27,836.
PDM means the prior day's median. It is the midpoint of Monday's regular session: (28,129.25 + 27,316.25) ÷ 2 = 27,722.75. The expected move is the range the options market prices for a set time. Today's NQ band ran from 27,589.70 to 28,439.30, measured from Monday's close.
October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came out at 3:30 AM HT / 8:30 AM ET. Consumer prices rose 0.4% for the month, above the 0.3% forecast in the saved Forex Factory calendar. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast. In September, prices rose 0.6% and core rose 0.3%. BLS could not publish headline or core 12-month inflation rates because the October 2025 comparison data were unavailable after a lapse in survey collection. Some component 12-month changes were available.
NQ closed the 8:29 AM ET minute at 27,929.75. In the 8:42 AM ET minute, it traded as low as 27,590, below the PDM and just 0.30 index points above the expected-move low. That was 48 minutes before the cash open. The 8:44 AM ET minute closed at 27,688.50. Over the same 15-minute window, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.901% to 4.938%. These sharp moves followed the inflation release.
Members get the scorecard against this morning's prep, how ES took the same path, what our alert board sent, Wednesday's PDM and the plan into
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