Market Pulse: Ceasefire Relief Tests Hawkish-Fed Damage Before Juneteenth

Equity futures are trying to stabilize into Thursday’s open after Wednesday’s Fed-driven selloff. The tone is better than the prior close: oil is off the stress highs, index futures are green enough to attempt repair, and overnight risk sentiment improved after signs of easing U.S.–Iran tension. But the bigger message from the last 24 hours is not fully repaired: the Fed held rates steady, the updated projections leaned hawkish, and cash equities rejected the initial pre-Fed optimism.

That leaves today as a two-part tape. The first part is a rebound attempt. The second part is a credibility test. Buyers need to prove that the move is more than holiday-week positioning before Friday’s Juneteenth closure.

What You Need To Know

S&P 500 futures are near 7,554, modestly below the prior futures settlement around 7,555 after trading as high as 7,568 overnight.

Nasdaq 100 futures are near 30,471, outperforming the other major contracts and trying to reclaim leadership after Wednesday’s Fed reaction.

Dow futures are near 52,150, still lagging the Nasdaq rebound and sitting below prior settlement.

Russell futures are near 2,979, the best relative read among the index futures as small caps try to repair.

WTI crude is near $74.6, below the overnight high near $75.75, helping ease the inflation/geopolitical pressure that dominated earlier in the week.

VIX is near 17.2, below Wednesday’s close but still elevated enough to respect two-way range expansion.

The 10-year yield is near 4.44%, the 5-year near 4.24%, and DXY is near 100.7.

The 8:30 AM ET data mix was mostly close to expectations: initial claims printed 226K, continuing claims 1.81M, and the Philly Fed headline improved to 10.3.

U.S. equity markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth, so today carries the feel of a compressed pre-holiday, post-Fed, expiration-adjacent