Softer PPI Broadens Participation as Nasdaq Retreats From Its High and Crude Holds Near $80 — Market Pulse for Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Wednesday's market is getting another cooler inflation signal, but the tape is not treating every risk asset the same way.

By roughly 10:32 a.m. ET, ES futures were near 7,617.50, NQ futures were near 29,745, WTI crude oil was around $79.56, VIX was near 15.90, the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.557%, and the U.S. dollar index was near 100.802. The broad cash indexes were positive, but Nasdaq futures had already retreated from a morning high near 30,062.50.

The catalyst was the Bureau of Labor Statistics June Producer Price Index release. Final demand prices fell 0.3% month over month, while the measure excluding food, energy, and trade services rose only 0.1%. That is helpful for the inflation argument. The catch is that much of the headline relief came from a sharp decline in June energy prices while today's crude market is still trading near $80.

That gives traders a familiar but important split: backward-looking inflation data cooled, while the live oil market continues to warn that forward pressure has not disappeared.

This is a normal midweek Market Pulse. The weekly expected-move map was shared Monday and the monthly map was shared at the beginning of July. Today's focus is the daily field, with the larger crude-oil bands included only because CL is still trading beyond them.

What You Need To Know Right Now

Prior Session

Tuesday's session was a repair day, but it was not an all-clear.

Nasdaq and the S&P 500 finished higher after cooler CPI and strong bank earnings helped offset the oil shock. Equity volatility eased, yields and the dollar softened, and financials broadened the move. Crude, however, stayed elevated and gold held firm enough to show that hedge demand had not disappeared.

That matters today because Wednesday is testing whether Tuesday's repair can become durable participation.

The early answer is mixed but constructive. ES, YM, and RTY are above their Tuesday anchors. NQ pushed higher early but could not hold its morning peak. In other words, the market is broadening while its most crowded leadership contract is being forced to prove itself again.

Economic Calendar: PPI Cooled, but the Energy Detail Matters

The June PPI report gave the market a second straight softer inflation signal.

The BLS reported:

• Final demand prices fell 0.3% in June and rose 5.5% over the last 12 months.
• Final demand goods fell 1.4%, the largest monthly decline since July 2022.
• Final demand energy prices dropped 6.4%.
• Gasoline prices fell 12.0% in the June calculation.
• Final demand services rose 0.2%.
• Prices excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% for the month and 5.1% over the year.

The report is genuinely helpful, but it also explains why traders cannot stop watching crude. June producer prices benefited from falling energy costs. Today's market is looking at WTI near $80 and asking whether that relief can survive into the next inflation cycle.

That is the central tension for Wednesday. Rates and the dollar are responding to the softer data now. Oil is warning that the next set of inflation reports may not receive the same help.

Overnight Markets and Market-Moving Headlines

The overnight move began with the same question that carried out of Tuesday's close: could softer inflation data and strong earnings keep broadening the equity repair while crude stayed elevated?

The first answer was yes. Equity futures firmed into the PPI release, yields eased after the data, and the dollar softened. The more revealing move came after the opening bell. Nasdaq futures briefly pushed above 30,000, then faded from the high while YM and RTY continued to participate. That rotation kept the broad tape constructive without allowing traders to treat the early NQ move as automatic acceptance.

The other market-moving headlines came from earnings. Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson gave traders three different reactions to strong operating results, reinforcing that the tape is rewarding company-specific execution rather than lifting every report equally.

US Futures and Cross-Asset Levels

The cross-asset read is cleaner than the headline alone.

Equity volatility is falling. Treasury yields are easing. The dollar is softer. Those three conditions support the risk-on side of the board. But OVX near 58.90 says the oil market is still carrying far more stress than the equity-volatility indexes.

That is why broad equity strength can continue without turning the environment into a comfortable one-way trade.

Daily Expected-Move Map

The expected move is not a prediction. It defines where price is ordinary, where it is extended, and where traders need stronger evidence before chasing.

For the full framework, review the Expected Moves and Gamma Flip Guide and keep the live EM Tracker nearby.

Earnings Are Broadening the Tape—but Not Uniformly

Wednesday's earnings slate is helping the market move beyond Tuesday's big-bank cluster.

Morgan Stanley and BlackRock both traded sharply higher after reporting. Johnson & Johnson moved lower even though its official second-quarter release showed $25.3 billion in sales, $2.90 in adjusted earnings per share, and an increase to its full-year sales and earnings outlook.

That dispersion is useful. It says traders are still distinguishing between businesses, guidance, positioning, and valuation instead of blindly buying every headline that includes the word “beat.”

For the index tape, the strongest message is that financial strength is broadening participation while healthcare is showing that raised guidance alone is not enough to guarantee a positive reaction.

The Plan

The constructive path is straightforward: lower yields, a softer dollar, YM and RTY participation, and crude unable to reclaim its high.

The warning path is also straightforward: NQ's morning rejection spreads into ES, small caps fail near daily +1SD, and crude pushes back above $80.93.

Bottom Line

Wednesday's PPI report gave the market another reason to believe inflation pressure cooled in June. The tape is responding with lower yields, a softer dollar, calmer equity volatility, and better participation from the Dow and small caps.

But crude oil remains near $80, above both its weekly and monthly +1SD references. That keeps the inflation victory incomplete.

The best read is not “PPI solved inflation” or “oil cancels everything.” It is that the market currently has enough support to broaden while the energy market continues to set a hard limit on complacency.

Let ES prove acceptance above its morning high. Let NQ show whether it can reclaim the failed push. Let RTY decide whether daily +1SD is resistance or a new area of trade. And keep watching crude, because that is still the market most capable of changing the story.

Build the plan before the next move arrives. Registered PonoTrading traders can use the Daily Futures Prep Checklist to turn these levels into a written session plan.

Not financial advice. Trade your plan.