Oil Jumps Back Into the Weekly Reset as CPI Week Opens - Market Pulse for Monday, July 13, 2026
Market Pulse for Monday, July 13, 2026: crude oil is back near its daily upper band, Nasdaq futures are under pressure, and the first trading day of CPI week resets the daily and weekly expected-move map.
Oil Jumps Back Into the Weekly Reset as CPI Week Opens - Market Pulse for Monday, July 13, 2026
Monday is opening with a very different feel than the calmer Friday close suggested.
By roughly 8:40 a.m. ET, WTI crude oil was near $74.15, VIX was around 16.45, the 10-year Treasury yield proxy was near 4.585%, and the U.S. dollar index was around 100.957. At the same time, ES futures were down to 7,587.25 versus Friday's close at 7,620.25, while Nasdaq futures were down harder at 29,672.25 versus their Friday anchor at 30,032.25.
That is the real Monday read: this is not just another quiet continuation setup. It is the first trading day of a CPI week with crude back near the top of its daily expected-move range, rates still firm, and technology leadership taking fresh pressure before the bell.
Because today is Monday, July 13, 2026, this Market Pulse includes both the daily expected-move map and the weekly expected-move map. The monthly map was already shared on Wednesday, July 1, 2026, so today's focus is the daily and weekly reset.
What You Need To Know Right Now
| Theme | Current Read | Trading Takeaway |
|---|---|---|
| ES futures | 7,587.25 versus Friday's close at 7,620.25 | ES is under pressure, but still above the daily lower band. The first question is whether this is a contained oil shock or the start of broader acceptance lower. |
| NQ futures | 29,672.25 versus Friday's close at 30,032.25 | Nasdaq is carrying the cleanest downside stress. Bulls need tech to stop leaking if the broader tape is going to stabilize. |
PonoTrading Team
PonoTrading publishes futures trading education, market structure notes, expected move analysis, and practical indicator workflows for retail traders.
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